Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active storm track in the U.S., easing showers in parts of central Brazil, and another stretch of hot and dry conditions after earlier rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system moved through the Midwest on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Another will do something very similar this weekend but with heavier snow across the north. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region over the weekend, replacing the general warmth this week. That pushes the storm track to the south but will clip at least the southern end of the region, bringing precipitation with a couple of storms next week.

COLDER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system didn't bring much precipitation to the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday. The same is likely to be the case for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. Next week looks more promising for seeing a few storm systems bring through some precipitation. A shot of cold air will move down through the region next week as well and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

COLD AIR STUCK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will be hard to get rid of in the Northern Plains this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially Friday into Saturday. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.

WATER LEVELS LIKELY STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A system last week caused water levels to rise on the Mississippi River. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring. Multiple storm systems will move through the Ohio Valley with showers over the next couple of weeks and maintain or increase water levels. At some point, they may get a little too high in some spots.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK, FILLING IN NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil have been easing up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers are still going across productive areas in the west and south and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making for timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

HEAVY RAIN FOR DRIEST SPOTS IN ARGENTINA, BUT MORE HEAT AND DRYNESS

A front moved through southern Argentina on Wednesday, bringing through some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather will follow for the rest of this week and weekend. A front will move through early-mid next week, with better chances for rain over northeastern crop areas, which would be beneficial after the last couple of weeks of heat. However, that wouldn't help many other areas. There is potential for more rain farther south later next week or weekend.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO WESTERN EUROPE FRIDAY

It has been drier for much of Europe this week, though areas in the west will see some showers Friday into next week. That would favor Spain, Italy and parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat. But France will stay too wet and areas in the east will remain too dry.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers continue to move through southeastern Australia this week, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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