Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A La Nina pattern featuring cold in the northwest U.S., heavy rain in central Brazil but easing up later next week and rain potential for the driest areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH WARM MIDWEST

Temperatures remain above normal in most of the Midwest. A larger system is moving through on Friday with mostly rain but some snow on the northern edge. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of showers and milder air through northern areas, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push the colder air through the entire region. That system could bring some areas of heavy precipitation, though that is not certain.

GETTING DRIER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is pushing out of the Central Plains on Friday after dumping some heavy and flooding rain in the southeast with some snow in Colorado. Drier weather follows into next week. Another system is likely to move through mid-late next week, though its precipitation may not be heavy and could push some cold air back into the region for late next week and weekend.

VERY COLD AIR COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

It has been very warm in the Northern Plains this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. The cold is likely to stick around the area, especially north in the Canadian Prairies through a good portion of February. Limited precipitation is expected with the weekend system, though some additional snow will be possible next week. Drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, but that is not a guarantee.

WATER LEVELS RISING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels are near the low-water mark in several spots along the Mississippi River. Warmer air is causing some ice jams on some of the local rivers that feed the Mississippi. A larger storm system continues to move through the region on Friday, which will cause water levels to rise. Another storm system may do that next week as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL INTO NEXT WEEK

Showers in central Brazil are heavy into next week making it much more difficult to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Quality concerns on soybeans and transportation issues are likely to develop as well. Showers will be waning from east to west later next week and could provide some opportunities for more fieldwork. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers but generally staying below normal across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn and soybeans in that state.

HOT AND DRY IN ARGENTINA, CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK

Rainfall has been disappointing for a lot of areas of Argentina lately, hitting only some lucky spots while others stay much drier. Areas in the east-central have seen very little rainfall over the last several weeks and are causing declines in soil moisture and crop conditions. Dry weather is expected through the weekend while temperatures will increase up near or over 100 degrees Fahrenheit again. The forecast for next week does have a couple of chances for rain over parched areas in the east-central, but confidence is low on any coverage or meaningful impact.

WEATHER PATTERN QUIETING DOWN IN EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Heavy rain has fallen in northwestern Europe since the weekend. Some needed precipitation also went through Spain, and a couple more bursts of showers will move through there into the weekend. Systems have been falling apart as they head east, with limited showers in Italy or the southeast, where more rainfall is needed for winter wheat. The continent will be largely drier next week but may become more active again next weekend.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA, WATCHING FOR TROPICAL STORMS

Some spotty showers have moved through eastern Australia this week and continue into the weekend. But most areas have stayed dry, which is not helpful for filling cotton and sorghum. Multiple areas of tropical activity are being watched across northern Australia that may bring some precipitation southward next week and beyond, but that is an uncertain prospect.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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