Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A week of warm weather in the U.S., heavy rain in central Brazil and limited rain for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WARM IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Temperatures remain above normal in most of the Midwest this week, despite another clipper moving through the Great Lakes with snow on Tuesday with some more breezy winds. A larger system will move through Thursday and Friday with a widespread mix of rain and snow. A clipper will move through this weekend into early next week and will bring a burst of milder air through, but it may take until another system moves through later next week to push colder air through the entire region.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

A slow-developing system will move into the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday but may take until Friday to leave. Precipitation will be heavier across the southeastern areas of the region, though showers could be widespread. It will likely have little effect on the soil moisture situation for most of the region outside of the southeast. The pattern will likely cause another large system to move through next week.

WARM AND LARGELY DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Very warm weather will be in place across the Northern Plains this week, but cold air will arrive over the weekend as a clipper passes by to the north. The cold is likely to stick around the area and especially north in the Canadian Prairies through a good portion of February. Limited precipitation is expected with the weekend system and drought continues to be a major concern this winter. The weather pattern may be more favorable in February, however.

WATER LEVELS SLOWLY FALLING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MAY GET SOME HELP

Water levels will fall near the low-water mark this week in several spots along the Mississippi River this week, though southern areas have had enough rainfall to limit the fall on the river system there. Warmer air is causing some ice jams on some of the local rivers that feed the Mississippi. A larger storm system will move through Thursday and Friday and should bring through some meaningful precipitation to support water levels from falling too rapidly.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil are increasing this week and will make it much more difficult to harvest soybeans and plant corn going into next week. Quality concerns on soybeans and transportation issues are likely to develop as well. Southern areas are going through periods of scattered showers, but generally staying below normal in amounts across the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will be harmful for filling corn in that state.

LIMITED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Pockets of showers moved through Argentina over the weekend and another round went through southern areas on Monday, but amounts were disappointing in a lot of areas. Only a few lucky areas were able to pick up meaningful rainfall. Areas in the east-central have seen very little rainfall over the last several weeks and are causing declines in soil moisture and crop conditions. A couple more waves of showers will move across the north through Wednesday, though those are mostly rangelands and not for row crops. Dry weather will follow going into the weekend while temperatures will increase. The extended forecast for next week does have chances for rain over parched areas in the east-central, but confidence is low on any meaningful impact.

NORTHWESTERN EUROPE BATTERED BY RAIN AND WINDS

Heavy precipitation moved through northwestern Europe over the weekend due to a couple of major storm systems. Some precipitation went through Spain as well, which continues in a couple of waves through Thursday. Systems will fall apart as they head east, with limited showers in Italy or the southeast, where more rainfall is needed for winter wheat.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA, WATCHING FOR TROPICAL STORMS

Very little precipitation fell across agricultural areas in Australia over the weekend, with mostly just some spotty showers in the northeast. Limited rainfall is expected this week with generally hot temperatures that will cause stress for cotton and sorghum. Multiple areas of tropical activity are being watched across northern Australia that may bring some weather southward next week and beyond, but that is an uncertain prospect.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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