Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A blast of arctic air for the U.S. next week and some rain moving through Argentina later this week and weekend are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ARCTIC BLAST EYEING MIDWEST

Temperatures will rise in the Midwest for the next few days, especially in the northwest. But a system moving through this weekend should bring through a burst of showers as a mix of rain and snow and will be followed by a burst of extremely cold air through most of next week. The cold will keep lake-effect snow going for several days as well.

BURST OF ARCTIC COLD HEADING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front and system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday, bringing limited showers, but also another burst of very cold air. Exposed wheat areas may see some winter kill from this burst of cold that should last well into next week. A system may form early next week in the cold air, bringing potential widespread wintry prospects across the south.

ANOTHER BURST OF ARCTIC COLD COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moves through the Northern Plains on Friday, bringing scattered light snow and a burst of very cold air for a few days. While some moderation will be possible for the second half of next week, more cold air is likely to flow in next weekend.

WATER LEVELS STILL HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, making for mostly easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though and could use some precipitation to keep water levels up. A system moving through this weekend could help that somewhat.

LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL FOR NEXT WEEK, IN TIME FOR MAIN HARVEST PERIOD

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for another week, so the rain is favorable overall, but becoming less so. If rainfall continues to be heavy for the end of January and into February, it may have more of an impact on harvesting soybeans and planting safrinha corn, but the forecast is for showers to be more spread out next week. Showers across the south have been much less frequent, which has been a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul. A front moving through this weekend is looking to bring more widespread precipitation, but could be followed by another period of dryness.

AT LEAST SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina with very little rainfall and temperatures well above normal in the 90s and 100s, leading to declining crop conditions. We should see a burst of showers moving through later in the week and weekend, but any heavy amounts may be limited. Models disagree on the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall, but dry conditions are expected to follow well into next week, especially across critical central production areas.

DRIER IN EUROPE

Drier conditions continue in Europe, with only limited showers moving through the northeast and west at various points over the next couple of weeks. The drier conditions would be more favored across the northwest, but more rain is needed in Spain as well as some other dry areas in the southeast. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

RAIN LEAVING EASTERN AUSTRALIA, OTHERS STAYING DRY

Scattered showers have been going through eastern Australia recently, offering some help for developing cotton and sorghum. But those showers are diminishing. Dry areas in the west and south are not getting as lucky with only limited showers and declining soil moisture in these areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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