Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Significant cold air settling into the U.S. and drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER BIG WEEKEND SYSTEM

A major winter storm moved into the Midwest over the weekend with heavy amounts of snow and some freezing rain across the south. The system exits on Monday, but we could see another snow producer for southern and eastern areas late this week and weekend. Clippers are likely to follow every couple of days through next week, though models are insisting on milder temperatures overall after a cold burst this week. Southern areas that have seen snow could take a while to melt and keep temperatures down for a bit.

COLD SETTLING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A major winter storm moved through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, bringing heavy snow and freezing rain to parts of Kansas, but very little to western Kansas and other hard red winter wheat areas. Cold air settling in for the next couple of days will be extreme in some areas and may cause winter kill on exposed wheat, and higher rations for livestock. Several systems look to move through the region this week and next, with a focus on Texas and Oklahoma, which could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally cold pattern for a while, though, too.

DROUGHT CONTINUES IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Snow fell across southern areas of the Northern Plains over the weekend, being heavy in parts of Montana, but not enough to have much of an effect on the ongoing drought. The region will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but very little overall precipitation. Drought continues to be a concern this winter.

WATER LEVELS STILL HIGHER ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, bolstered by strong storm this weekend and another coming up later this week. If yet another one of these larger systems moves through next week, water levels will continue to be high, allowing for easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though and could use some precipitation.

GOOD WEATHER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period is not for a couple of weeks yet and so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA CAUSING CONCERN

Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south for the next couple of weeks. That should start leading to issues for early planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal with the lack of rainfall.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system brought showers back into northern Europe over the weekend, being moderate to heavy where it wasn't welcome in parts of France, Germany and the UK which have been wet for a long time. Rain went through Spain and was helpful for wheat there, however. A couple of larger storm systems are forecast to move through this week, spreading showers throughout the continent. That will likely be helpful for some of the dry areas around Spain and the east. There are no risks of significant cold for the next couple of weeks.

DRY AUSTRALIA HOPING FOR MORE RAIN

Some beneficial showers went through southern Australia over the weekend, which were somewhat helpful, but the country has been going through a drier stretch for a while with lower-than-normal soil moisture in many areas outside of the far east, not a good sign for developing cotton and sorghum. The pattern may get more active with fronts becoming more frequent starting this weekend, but models do not have much precipitation with them just yet.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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