Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Colder air moving into the U.S. for the start of 2025, and the lack of heavy rain in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COUPLE OF SYSTEMS, COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the Midwest over the weekend. A system will bring a mix of rain and snow to the region Monday and Tuesday, with some lake-effect snow lingering on Wednesday. Another system is forecast to move through Sunday and Monday of next week, followed by a burst of very cold air that should linger for a while. Areas without adequate snow cover could see some winter kill on wheat.

TWO SYSTEMS, THEN COLD FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved through southeastern areas of the Plains with heavier rain and some severe weather over the weekend, but southwestern areas remained drier. Soil moisture is falling in these areas, but drought has not set in yet. A system will go through northern areas on Monday with moderate precipitation and another system is forecast to bring widespread moderate precipitation this weekend that should be helpful. However, it will come as a mix of precipitation types which may be hazardous, and be followed by a burst of cold air for next week. The cold could be hazardous for dormant winter wheat that is not covered by snow.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND LINGERING

A system will move across the Northern Plains with snow on Monday and a round of cooler air. Another system will likely move through southern areas this weekend with more snow followed by a stronger burst of colder air that is likely to last next week, being very cold for livestock. Drought continues to be a major concern this winter.

WATER LEVELS STAYING HIGHER ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Water levels remain above the low-water mark on most of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, allowing for easier transportation. Active weather with a system moving through this week and another moving through early next week should keep water levels elevated.

GOOD WEATHER IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Widespread wet season showers continue in central Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans. Showers across the south are more sparse than farther north, but are coming at a regular pace to prevent too many concerns for either full-season corn or filling soybeans. Below-normal rainfall may cause some minor issues in spots, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

It was largely dry in Argentina over the weekend and soil moisture is falling. Though systems are coming through, they are doing so with spotty rainfall amounts, leading to some areas getting missed for several weeks on end and creating some dry patches for pollinating corn. With how drawn out the growing season is, though, patchy areas of dryness are not a large concern just yet. However, the forecast calls for below-normal rainfall through at least the middle of January, which may lead to bigger concerns down the line.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

It was drier across Europe over the weekend. A front will gradually be pushed southward through the continent by a few systems this week, bringing widespread showers to most areas. Some areas of Spain and Hungary need more rainfall for vegetative winter wheat and won't get it this week, and some areas are too wet in the north. Otherwise, overall conditions are favorable for most areas. The run of very active weather in the northwest continues next week with many days of rain.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Some areas in northeastern Australia saw showers over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. That continues to be the case through this week with limited showers outside of the northeast that has better chances. Conditions continue to slowly worsen for developing cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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