Ag Weather Forum

The calendar has rolled into December, and weekly USDA Crop Progress and condition reports have gone into hibernation until spring. But the rise in winter wheat conditions at the end of autumn is worth one more look before all the analyzing is put away. And it's a remarkable story.

The key component in this saga is extraordinary November rainfall. Looking at the Southern Plains hard red winter wheat region brings some eye-popping numbers. In November 2024, Dodge City, Kansas, had 6.38 inches of precipitation, which was 5.58 inches above the normal amount of just 0.80 inch. That amount is 797% -- almost 800% -- the normal amount. Other stations in the Southern Plains also had precipitation that was well-above normal. For instance: Wichita, Kansas, with 6.99 inches, 5.63 inches above normal (514%); Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with 7.73 inches, 6.05 inches above normal (460%); Amarillo, Texas, 6 inches, 5.25 inches above normal (800%). Other winter wheat production regions had generous rain as well.

Now, to the impact on conditions. USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey offered this perspective on the U.S. winter wheat conditions at the end of the fall season compared with the initial condition report in late October. Over the past 10 years, Rippey noted that "The condition index improvement in 2024 is quite striking, showing a rise from 213 to 248. That net gain of +35 is a U.S. record for autumn (going back to 2000), surpassing 2022 (+23, from 181 to 204)."

(The USDA winter wheat condition index formula is calculated by multiplying the percentage number for excellent by 4; good, by 3; fair, by 2; and poor, by 1. No points are given for a crop rating of very poor.)

In Kansas, the top winter wheat production state, those improved crop ratings show a performance that hearkens more than 40 years back, according to Kansas state crop statistician Douglas Bounds. "The 15-percentage-point increase in Kansas winter wheat condition rated good to excellent, from Nov. 3, 2024, to Nov. 24, 2024 (3 weeks), is the largest increase since at least 1987," Bounds said in an email. "A lot of years in the dataset show conditions deteriorating between planting and dormancy. The only other year with a similar improvement to this year was the fall of 1992 (1993 crop year)."

Winter wheat will go into dormancy with cold air spreading throughout the interior U.S. in early December. There are also no forecasts for precipitation at the levels seen during November. However, that late-fall boost has given the crop a buffer and then some in anticipation of the post-dormancy development and production phases when spring 2025 rolls around.

For award-winning wheat production news, details on top dryland wheat yields in the 2024 National Wheat Yield Contest are available here: "Oregon Farmer Wins Dryland Winter Wheat Contest Category With 170.63 BPA," at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Bryce Anderson can be reached at Bryce.Anderson@dtn.com

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