Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cold air east of the Rockies but shifting weather next week and continued good rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST

Cold air has spread through the Midwest and will continue the lake-effect snow machine through probably Tuesday. A couple of weak clippers may bring some streaks of light snow into the region over the weekend. A larger clipper is likely to produce more widespread snow in the middle of next week. Temperatures may briefly rise ahead of it, but will fall well below normal again behind it. Several clippers moving through later next week into the following week could continue the potential for showers and large swings in temperatures.

COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Colder air will stick around the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend, but temperatures will rise next week. Clippers moving through to the north will not bring much precipitation to the region, but could result in wild swings in temperatures. The best chance for any rain will be in Texas with showers coming off the Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of fronts.

VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, TEMPERATURES VARIABLE NEXT WEEK

A couple of small clippers will bring down colder air and some light snow from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains through the weekend. Temperatures remain very cold but will moderate on Tuesday. Additional clippers coming down from Canada may bring some showers through the region, but also waffle temperatures around quite a bit in both directions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER STILL HOVERING LOWER

Water levels on the Mississippi River are still above the low mark due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest, but are still falling. A slight bump from the midweek storm is not forecast to make much difference. With the forecast turning much drier into mid-December, the slow fall of water levels is likely to continue.

HEAVIER RAIN FOR BRAZIL

Showers returned to being scattered in central Brazil after being isolated for most of the last week. Southern areas got heavier rain from a front that moved up from Argentina the last two days. Another front will move through southern areas Sunday and Monday, stalling over central Brazil with even more rainfall. With fronts continuing to move up from Argentina at a fairly regular pace, it is hard to find poor growing conditions for corn and soybeans.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA SUNDAY

A front brought heavier rain to northern Argentina earlier this week and isolated showers have continued behind it. Another front will move through on Sunday with widespread rain in the forecast. Southern areas have been a bit drier than elsewhere and would be the spot to watch if this front disappoints. Otherwise, overall good growing conditions continue for corn and soybeans. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system moved through central and eastern Europe over the last couple of days and continues to produce showers for needed areas in the southeast into the weekend. Several fronts and systems are forecast to move through next week with widespread precipitation, particularly in France and the UK, where soils are still fairly wet and do not need to see any more rain for a while. Wheat continues to go dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.

HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system continues to produce areas of heavy rain for eastern Australia into the weekend. Another system will move through eastern areas early next week with more rain and we could see another system late next week there as well. The rain is unfavorable for fieldwork and winter wheat and canola harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. Soil moisture is improving in many areas, though the pattern looks a little drier next week for western areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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