South America Calling

A lot of attention has been placed on the recent good weather in South America, but the region has not fully recovered just yet.

That's not for the lack of trying. During the last four weeks, Mother Nature has been very active. Wet season showers have been very consistent for most of central Brazil. Most places have seen above-normal rainfall during that time.

In Argentina, the multitude of fronts and systems that had been dry earlier this season woke up about the same time as central Brazil, producing more widespread precipitation throughout the country. Most areas here have also seen above-normal rainfall during the last 30 days.

That has eaten away at the extensive drought that plagued both regions. The drought had caused issues for corn and wheat in Argentina, and soybeans in central Brazil. Now, conditions in both regions are much improved; concerns have waned for a little while.

But neither region has fully recovered. Analyses of soil moisture in both regions shows conditions are still largely drier than normal. Argentina may be closer to normal than Brazil, but pockets that have been missed or only seen lighter rain exist. Soil moisture is not as good as it could be. There are very few areas where excessive soil moisture exists.

At the same time, Brazil is still lagging when compared to normal. While the rains have fallen, the deep deficits built up earlier in the season have been hard to poke away at there. Because these showers are scattered across the region, some areas are doing better than others. The state of Goias and parts of Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais are near or even above normal compared to average soil moisture. But other parts of central Brazil, and especially areas in Mato Grosso do Sul and northern Parana and Sao Paulo, are much worse.

Lost in the good weather across central Brazil has been the reduced rainfall across southern Brazil. Rainfall was actually very favorable earlier this season across the states of Rio Grande do Sul into Parana. Soil moisture there allowed on-time planting and good early growth. However, that trend has reversed during the last few weeks

While systems have been regular, they have been passing through rather quickly, bringing a wave of scattered showers and then pushing into central Brazil to enhance their wet season showers

That has amounted to below-normal rainfall and a reduction in soil moisture. States like Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo are ones where the wet season showers have been much spottier as well. This is now the driest production spot in the country and could use some rain.

A couple more fronts are going through Argentina and southern Brazil through Nov. 12 and rainfall amounts are forecast to maintain what soil moisture is there. However, there is a drier stretch forecast to follow, likely for the following week. That puts some of the drier areas that are still teetering on a classification of drought into more of a risk for it.

One week of dryness will not be the cause of significant concern, even with lower-than-normal soil moisture. Longer-range models indicate a large increase in rainfall for the second half of November for Argentina and southern Brazil.

But this goes to show that there are still concerns that could show up for this year's crop, despite a recent burst of good rainfall. And the influence of La Nina building in the Pacific Ocean furthers our attention toward a longer period of hot and dry conditions for Argentina and southern Brazil for later on this season.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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