DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
There is a ridge in the East with another spreading across the Northwest, cutting off a trough moving in the Four Corners area. The low will get pushed northeast over the weekend and a new low will move into the West, which will push through the country next week.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:A new trough develops in the West and the ridge returns to the East by the end of next week, a pattern that should be familiar for the rest of the month.
The U.S. and European models differ on the details, but agree on the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A system is likely to sweep through the country around the middle of next week and bring scattered showers. Though temperatures will fall behind the system, they are not forecast to go below normal for too many areas, with temperatures rising again a day or so afterward. Another trough moving into the West late next week could mean some showers getting back into the Plains by the weekend.
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:HIGH WED...93 AT BURNSIDE, LA
LOW WED...16 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT
24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...MEMPHIS, TN 2.04 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:There is a ridge in the East with another spreading across the Northwest, cutting off a trough moving in the Four Corners area. The low will get pushed northeast over the weekend and a new low will move into the West, which will push through the country next week. It is not expected to last long as a new trough develops in the West and the ridge returns to the east by the end of the week, a pattern that should be familiar for the rest of the month. Hurricane Rafael is now forecast to not impact the U.S., likely continuing west through the Gulf of Mexico toward Mexico for early next week.
The U.S. and European models differ on the details, but agree on the overall pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.
A system is likely to sweep through the country around the middle of next week and bring scattered showers. Though temperatures will fall behind the system, they are not forecast to go below normal for too many areas, with temperatures rising again a day or so afterward. Another trough moving into the West late next week could mean some showers getting back into the Plains by the weekend.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system in the Four Corners will spread some rain over the weekend for eastern areas. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well.
Though systems are moving through, temperatures are forecast to remain near or even above normal through next week.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): An upper-level low in the Southwest is building heavy showers across the west, which includes some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The low will move northeast through the region on Saturday, with any snow changing to rain. Some areas in the southwest will see some heavy precipitation, helping to reduce drought and improve conditions for winter wheat. Another system will push through around the middle of next week, but may or may not produce much precipitation. Those that see snow will see temperatures stay lower while the rest of the region sees above-normal temperatures, even with the systems moving through.
MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall and several waves of heavy rain have led to drought reduction across much of the region. Some flooding has occurred because of heavy rain though, especially in Missouri.
After a few days' break, another system will move through this weekend with scattered showers and another system is poised to move through next week with more rain chances. Temperatures continue to be above normal, even behind the systems moving through, allowing the rain to build soil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat.
DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, the River needs to see more precipitation into the Ohio Valley. Additional rain will fall with a system moving through this weekend and another system will move through next week. The region does stay active through the month of November, which may help.
BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina, though a front that moves through early next week may have more limited showers and another stretch of drier weather will be possible afterward.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is moving through the country on Thursday with scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers may continue before the next system moves in over the weekend and early next week. A stretch of drier weather is likely to return afterward. However, it is not expected to last more than a week and overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country for now. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.
EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula and may redevelop there and across France over the next few days as well. But the remainder of the continent is likely to be dry through the weekend. The recent dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too. A system may then try to dive south through the middle of the continent early next week and bring showers there. Models have showers expanding across most of the continent next week, being heaviest around Italy.
BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in the east. The window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes more likely than not. Wheat is going dormant mostly in poor condition. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Very limited showers have been moving through the country lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork.
But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next week, but the forecast is calling for continued spotty rainfall with these systems.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.
East: Isolated showers south and east. Temperatures well above normal.
Forecast:
West: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.
East: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday.
Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Heavy showers west. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.
Temperatures below normal west and above normal east through Monday.
6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.
John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com
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