DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the West. Though a portion of the trough will get stuck in the Southwest, the majority of the trough will move eastward this week while a ridge develops behind it in the Northwest and spreads through the U.S. tropical feature will also be watched in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The upper low in the Southwest will get pushed northeast over the weekend and a new low will move into the West, a pattern that will continue to be fairly common the rest of the month.

The U.S. and European models differ on the details, but agree on the continued active pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The upper-level low in the Southwest will create a storm system that will move through the Plains and Midwest this weekend. Another system is likely to develop around the middle of next week. Some milder air may move through with the upper low over the weekend, otherwise above-normal temperatures are favored in the East. Cooler temperatures will likely build back into the West and could leak into the Plains next week as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...95 AT LAREDO, TX, FAITH RANCH, TX, AND COTULLA, TX

LOW SUN...9 AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT MONDAY...TULSA, OK 4.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the West. Though a portion of the trough will get stuck in the Southwest, the majority of the trough will move eastward this week while a ridge develops behind it in the Northwest and spreads through the U.S. The upper low in the Southwest will get pushed northeast over the weekend and a new low will move into the West, a pattern that will continue to be fairly common the rest of the month. A tropical feature will also be watched in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

The U.S. and European models differ on the details but agree on the continued active pattern. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The upper-level low in the Southwest will create a storm system that will move through the Plains and Midwest this weekend. Another system is likely to develop around the middle of next week. Some milder air may move through with the upper low over the weekend, otherwise above-normal temperatures are favored in the East. Cooler temperatures will likely build back into the West and could leak into the Plains next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell over eastern areas this weekend, disrupting the remaining harvest, but building in some soil moisture. Another system will move through western areas Monday night into Wednesday and could bring some snow outside of the mountains.

Outside of some colder temperatures there, above normal temperatures are favored this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms developed over the weekend, including some severe weather and flooding. The last round of rain from this particular system moves through on Monday, which will bring more meaningful precipitation to western Kansas that has been missed so far. An upper-level low will move down the Rockies and into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week. The low will move northeast through the region over the weekend, spreading more showers through which may include some significant snow in Colorado. The recent and coming rain will continue to reduce drought and build soil moisture for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Waves of showers moved into the region over the weekend, being heavy in some areas from Missouri to Wisconsin. Two more waves of showers will move through the region through early Wednesday, building soil moisture but disrupting the last of the harvest. After a few days' break, another system will move throuhg over the weekend with more rounds of rain. The active pattern continues to favor reducing drought and building soil moisture before winter and should improve winter wheat conditions.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Water levels on the Mississippi River had been very low, but the recent and forecast rain is likely to bump up levels in the upper basin this week and the lower basin next week. The River would need the Ohio Valley to get more rain to help bolster more long-term support, but will take the small bursts of help from the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers as well.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas got rainfall over the weekend and coming waves of showers from fronts moving through Brazil continue to be awfully favorable for the time being.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through over the weekend with scattered showers. Another will move through on Monday and Tuesday. Some additional spotty showers continue over the rest of the week before the next system moves in over the weekend. Overall favorable conditions continue to be present in the country, though the threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula early this week with a dying subtropical storm moving in. Showers may redevelop there and maybe France toward the end of the week as well. But the remainder of the continent is likely to be dry. The dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Rainfall deficits continue to be very large in the east. The window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes more likely than not. Wheat is going dormant mostly in poor condition. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Very limited showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas have been dry for a while now and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but the forecast is calling for light and spotty rainfall with these systems.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures well above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures well above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers, severe storms, and heavy rain. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday, especially southwest. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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