Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving through the Central U.S. with chances for heavy rain through the middle of next week and overall good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS FOR MIDWEST

Heavy rain fell in the western areas of the Midwest on Wednesday and some rain will turn to snow across the north for Thursday. The pattern will be active through the middle of next week with a system moving across the region Thursday, another bringing in showers over the weekend, and two more systems bringing widespread rainfall early-to-mid next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern will help to reduce drought in some areas. If the pattern indeed turns active again in the middle of November as forecast, more drought reduction or busting can occur.

BRIEF BREAK, THEN MORE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday, though southwestern areas did not see much precipitation. After a brief break, showers and thunderstorms return this weekend with another pair of storm systems moving through early next week. An upper-level low may get stuck near the region for next weekend and produce some showers as well. The active pattern could bring more widespread precipitation to southwestern areas and could significantly reduce or eliminate drought in some areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEMS

More storm systems will pass through or near the Northern Plains through early next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation, but not a lot of heavy rainfall. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit in the more active pattern.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW DESPITE COMING RAIN

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be extremely low, causing restrictions on transportation. The pattern is much more active in the Mississippi River Basin for the next week, but there is widespread drought throughout most of it and it will be tough to turn around. Some small improvements to river levels are expected, though.

WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically, which will be reported on Friday. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers into next week. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch. Showers will move through with a couple of fronts next week.

RAIN RETURNING TO ARGENTINA

It has been drier in Argentina this week, giving the country a break from heavier rain. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next with mostly good weather as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE, DRIER ELSEWHERE

A system continues to spin around Spain for the next couple of days, which has helped producers on the Iberian Peninsula see increasing soil moisture for their winter grains, though some limited flooding has occurred. More limited showers are forecast for the rest of Europe through next week. The lack of heavy rain will be helpful in the northwest, but those in the east would still like to see some rain as it starts to dry out in more areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A few systems will move through Australia over the next couple of weeks, but with limited precipitation in the forecast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. The momentum is toward drier soils, though. With harvest continuing to ramp up, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end but would help out the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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