Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A largely dry forecast for most of the U.S., Hurricane Milton moving into Florida, and the true start to the wet season rainfall in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

STRONG FRONT FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front will move through the Midwest this weekend, bringing showers to the Great Lakes into early next week, as well as a burst of colder air that could linger for a few days before the warmth returns, especially in the east. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene's rainfall two weeks ago.

LARGELY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and almost completely dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week, though a brief burst of colder air will move through early next week that could have a few isolated showers with it. Overall conditions are favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly warm and dry weather is forecast in the Northern Plains through next week, though a quick burst of cooler air will move through early next week. Conditions continue to be favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Largely dry weather continues in the Delta region for the next couple of weeks, favorable for harvest. But that is not the case for water levels on the Mississippi River, which had a very good boost due to Helene, but are forecast to drop low again next week, with a potential return to restrictive conditions for transportation.

SOUTHEAST DRY, MILTON HEADING FOR FLORIDA

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the Southeast this week. Heavy rain will move through Florida due to Hurricane Milton Wednesday and Thursday and may clip far southern Georgia with rain as well. Milton should be weakening as it moves into the state, but is still expected to cause devastation with storm surge along the coast, heavy rain across the Peninsula and damaging winds near landfall.

WET SEASON RAINS BEGIN IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

The late start to significant rain in central Brazil has caused a slow start to soybean planting. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks. A front is moving into southern Brazil with good rainfall, but this front will make it north into central Brazil that should finally have producers planting in earnest with the true start to the wet season as showers continue next week. That will be about two weeks late, however, and puts a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops when they get planted in early 2025 if producers can't catch up with their soybean planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARGENTINA

A system spread showers over northern Argentina over the last few days. But southern areas continue to miss out on the rainfall, with poor conditions for reproductive wheat and corn planting. Another front will move through southern areas late this week with streaks of showers into next week, and another system will move through later next week with chances for good rain as well. Producers need this to be heavy, soaking rain to reduce the drought and increase corn planting. Soybean planting doesn't begin until November, but there could be issues with that as well if rains don't start picking up in the next couple of weeks.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system continues to send waves of showers through Europe through the end of the week. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting, which continues there this week. Rainfall elsewhere has moistened soils for winter wheat planting and establishment. Additional waves of showers are likely to go through this weekend and next week as well, but they may not be as widespread as recent rainfall. The western half of the continent is still favored for the heaviest rainfall.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL VERY DRY

A system brought meaningful rain to western and central Ukraine over the weekend, but the system only produced isolated light showers for eastern Ukraine and western Russia and many areas saw nothing. Eastern areas have had a terrible go with hot and dry conditions for months. Systems from Europe have not been able to penetrate farther eastward with the rainfall just yet. There is some indication that rainfall will increase this weekend into next week, at least marginally, but that is starting to get awfully late for winter wheat establishment. Though temperatures have been quite warm recently, the risk of frost will increase throughout the rest of the month, with a cooler shot moving into Russia this weekend and another penetrating later next week. The window for potential planting with good growing conditions is quickly shutting down.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Light and spotty showers have been moving through Australia this week, though some areas in Queensland had more beneficial showers on Tuesday. Dryness has been an issue in parts of the growing regions this spring, especially in the southeast. Chances for rain may be a little better next week, mostly in the east.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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