Ag Weather Forum

Dry Forecast Leads to Concern for Winter Wheat Moisture

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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Drought is expected to increase in areas across the Southern Plains and Western Midwest during the last quarter of 2024. (NOAA/CPC graphic)

U.S. weather headlines during the past week were dominated by the impact of Hurricane Helene in the Southeast. At the same time, crop regions of the Plains and Western Midwest were concluding a very dry September. For example: Several National Weather Service reporting stations in the western Midwest -- including Omaha, Nebraska -- set new records for the driest September. The state of Iowa climatologist office reported that Iowa had one of its driest Septembers in more than 150 years of record keeping. In Illinois, rainfall numbers indicate that much of the state had less than 50% of normal precipitation during September.

Dryness has reached the point that the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued a Key Message on Tuesday, Oct. 1, titled "Dry Conditions Anticipated to Expand in the Central U.S. During October as Dry Weather Prevails." The CPC bulletin has the following bullet points:

--Persistent warmer and drier than normal conditions during September have led to drought across the central U.S.

--Below-normal precipitation is expected to prevail throughout much of the central U.S. during October, including the Plains and the Rockies.

Ongoing drought conditions are forecast to persist and worsen in the Plains, with rapid onset drought anticipated to affect eastern portions of the Southern Plains. Rapid onset drought is also known as flash drought.

Precipitation cannot be ruled out, particularly during the second half of October, but confidence is currently low in widespread heavy rainfall providing meaningful relief to drought conditions.

Dry soils, stressed vegetation, and reduced water availability due to low streamflows and groundwater may lead to increased impacts to agriculture and livestock. The CPC bulletin notes that approximately 50% of the winter wheat production area is within an area experiencing drought, mainly in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado.

Surface and groundwater supplies are also at risk. The CPC bulletin mentions reservoir levels are already low across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. In southwest Oklahoma, Lake Altus-Lugert is 17 feet below the normal pool elevation. This will severely impact the ability of producers to irrigate.

Negative impacts are expected on river navigation and hydraulic systems.

Dry conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger across the Plains and into the Rockies, specifically from New Mexico up to the Canadian border.

In recognition of these worsening conditions, CPC updated its drought outlook for the balance of this year. The outlook through the end of December calls for widespread drought expansion in the Plains and Midwest.

Drought is expected to either develop or get worse over almost the entire Southern Plains region along with the Midwest west of the Mississippi River.

DTN reached out to University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension Climatologist Eric Hunt. His reaction to the CPC outlook is there is good reason for concern.

"There's a lot of this (central U.S.) region where it's actually drier than back in 2022," Hunt said. "And for the (winter) wheat crop -- if it doesn't rain soon, it could be a disaster."

U.S. winter wheat seeding was reported at 38% complete as of Sunday, Sept. 29. The emergence of the new winter wheat seedlings stood at 14% as of Sunday, Sept. 29. Both the seeding and emergence rates are in line with the 5-year average.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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