Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt and Southeast, potential for another tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, many fronts but dry weather through the Corn Belt, and potential for increased wet season rainfall in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

DRIER FOR MIDWEST

In the Midwest, recent heavy rain has helped to ease the drought situation, increase water levels for the Mississippi River system, and moisten soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. Several fronts will be moving through this week and next, but they are not forecast to produce much in the way of precipitation, favorable for drying out soil for fieldwork. Though fronts will be moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through, but then rising above normal a day or two later.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was very warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, drying out topsoil after last week's good rainfall that was helpful for recently planted wheat. Dry conditions are in the forecast for the next couple of weeks with no real chances for meaningful rain while temperatures remain very warm to hot. That is not a good combination for wheat establishment, but it is for harvesting corn and soybeans.

DRY DESPITE SEVERAL FRONTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front that moved through the Northern Plains on Monday brought temperatures down a bit and gave some areas their first frosts and freezes, typical for this time of year. Several more fronts will move through this week and next, but none of them are forecast to bring precipitation. They may bring breezy winds at times though, which will dry out the corn and soybean crops, and hustle them toward maturity. Even with multiple fronts moving through, temperatures should be mostly above normal, coming down only briefly behind a front before popping right back up again.

DELTA DRY AGAIN

Hurricane Helene brought a ton of rain into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, raising water levels on the Mississippi River and reducing drought for the northern Delta, but causing some flood concerns and potential damage. Dry conditions are forecast through next week, though we will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week or weekend that could bring some impacts to the region.

HELENE FINALLY LEAVES THE SOUTHEAST

Hurricane Helene caused horrific flooding in parts of the Southeast late last week, causing some damage to cotton in Georgia and some corn and soybean acres in the Carolinas, though the worst of it occurred in the southern Appalachians where whole towns were washed away. Helene's remnants will finally get pushed eastward on Tuesday and the region will be much drier for the rest of the week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring some impacts to the region, though.

CENTRAL BRAZIL HOPING FOR SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers started in central Brazil over the weekend, but have been very spotty. That is expected to continue for the next week. The late start due to significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops for early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continues this week with another front moving through with good rainfall that dies out as it gets into central Brazil. Another of these fronts is forecasted for next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA, MORE HOPE NEXT WEEK

It was dry yet again in Argentina over the weekend, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions and limited or no rainfall. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better, but most areas are still dry. A system is moving through Tuesday but with spotty showers. A more promising system may move through this weekend into next week with potential for widespread rainfall, but this system will not be enough to reverse the outstanding drought. More rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system is moving through Europe with widespread rainfall, with the main portion of the storm digging down into the Mediterranean midweek with better rainfall for areas there into the southeast. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well. Soil moisture is much improved, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that has caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvesting.

CONTINUED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have seen precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall to the region for winter wheat planting. This continues to be the case for later this week and weekend with showers moving into western areas only to dry out before getting eastward. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in.

NEEDED RAIN MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A system spread rainfall throughout much of Australia's growing regions late last week and over the weekend. The rain was much needed due to recent dryness in a lot of the country. Another system will move through this week, though showers may not be all that widespread across the east later this week. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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