Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A burst of heavy rain moving through the Corn Belt this weekend and early next week, active weather in Argentina and southern Brazil, and an eye toward the start of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A front in the Plains will move into the western Midwest on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers. A system will form along that front with more widespread showers this weekend into next week. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, most likely in the west. Temperatures remain warm, helping crops to dry down and mature where rain is lower in coverage and intensity. Increasing dryness and drought have not been favorable for the winter wheat crop that is just starting to be planted and could use the rain.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOME HEAVY RAIN

A system to the north brought a front into the Central and Southern Plains, but it will be stalled out through the end of the week, producing some areas of showers. A low-pressure center is likely to develop along it this weekend and produce more widespread and heavier precipitation, which may help with winter wheat establishment and any immature crops. But for those watching their crops mature or beginning harvest, it could cause some delays.

STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS

A system dumped heavy rain in Montana on Wednesday and scattered showers elsewhere. Some limited showers continue for Thursday. Another system may bring a few showers this weekend, but it should be drier through next week. Temperatures will be milder behind the system this weekend, but that is forecast to be short-lived with temperatures rising again next week.

DRY AGAIN IN THE DELTA

Heavy rain last week caused harvest delays and potential quality issues for mature soybeans and cotton. Drought has been reduced in many areas, though. Any improvements on the Mississippi River have been limited and will be brief without significant precipitation farther upstream, especially in the Ohio Valley. The next significant chance for rain comes with a weak front moving through early next week. The rainfall farther north may help river levels. We will watch for a potential tropical storm to move into the Gulf of Mexico later next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system that moved north from Montana on Wednesday will move out on Thursday. Widespread showers and areas of heavy rain have occurred. Another system will move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers. Recent and continued rain will disrupt the remaining harvest and drop quality for some wheat and canola. The rain will help with the ongoing drought, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL EYEING THE START OF THE WET SEASON

Recent rainfall has been favorable for southern Brazil, allowing spring planting to increase. A front moving up from Argentina will likely produce more showers through the weekend, and more will be possible with another front later next week. But central Brazil continues to be extremely dry, in some of the worst drought to start off a season in decades. Wet season rainfall may be on track to start on time at the end of next week with spotty showers in Mato Grosso, but producers are going to have to wait for consistent rains to begin planting, which may be pushed back deeper into October. In the increasing likelihood of that occurring, it would put a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops that will start to be planted in January and February.

ACTIVE BUT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Dry weather has been a common theme for the start of corn planting in Argentina, which has been significantly delayed already. A front will move through on Thursday and could make for some significant rainfall, but mostly for areas in the east with better soil moisture. Western areas are still very dry. More fronts are in line to move through this weekend and again next week, but the rainfall will need to be better for the western half of the country's growing areas soon or further delays to corn planting will be likely and developing wheat will continue to suffer.

BIG SYSTEM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IN EUROPE

A system brought heavy rain to central and eastern areas of Europe late last week and weekend which caused flooding in some areas, though most saw beneficial rainfall for winter wheat planting. The system drifted into the Mediterranean where showers continue there in needed areas the next couple of days as winter wheat planting continues. A new system forms in the west on Friday and continues with widespread showers moving eastward into next week, followed quickly by a much stronger system for mid-late next week that could be a strong fall storm with widespread rainfall, strong winds, and a burst of cooler air. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Far western areas of the Black Sea region have seen meaningful rain lately while eastern Ukraine and western Russia in particular have been very hot and dry. Drought and heat are not making for very good conditions for winter wheat establishment, which has a very limited amount of time before frosts and freezes start to be a regular occurrence in October or early November. A more active pattern may start up later next week, though that is not guaranteed to occur.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

Some showers have been scraping through far southeastern Australia this week, but most areas have stayed unfavorably dry. The state of Victoria is the only area seeing rain this week. Additional rainfall is going to be needed with more of the crop reaching reproduction. A system may bring more widespread showers to eastern areas next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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