Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Increasing heat and largely dry conditions in the Corn Belt, a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico, and continued dryness to start South American spring planting are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

INCREASING HEAT FOR MIDWEST, UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM

A burst of cool weather moved through the Midwest over the weekend, bringing some chilly morning temperatures below 40 degrees in many areas from Minnesota to Indiana. Some frost may have been possible in Wisconsin and Michigan but was not widespread enough to cause any damage. Temperatures will be rising this week, becoming very warm and inducing stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. A tropical storm will move into the Mississippi Valley later this week and could move into southern portions of the region. If it does, it would help to bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but could disrupt the early harvest. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain.

INCREASING HEAT, SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was cool and largely dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, allowing crops to dry down with little stress. Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains later this week, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through the weekend. Most areas will stay dry. A better chance for scattered showers exists in the middle of next week. Temperatures will be rising this week as well, being above normal through next week. For those with fieldwork to do, it should be rather good conditions, but not for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

INCREASING HEAT, LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat in the west spread east over the weekend and temperatures will be well above normal in the Northern Plains this week. A system will try to move into the region by Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas early- to mid-next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

HURRICANE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF, WILL MOVE THROUGH DELTA

Some isolated showers went through the Delta over the weekend, but most areas were dry again, not good for soil moisture in the region. A tropical storm or hurricane is forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two and is forecast to move up through the region later this week, bringing heavy rain through. That could cause damage and disrupt harvest, but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again.

HEAVY RAIN COMING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heat expanded through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks. A system will develop in the Northern Plains by Thursday and will spread rain into the region later this week and weekend. Another could do so early- to mid-next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

It was largely dry in Brazil over the weekend with a few showers in the extreme southern section of Rio Grande do Sul in the south. That continues Monday. Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improving soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend. A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and bring showers, but very few areas are forecast to see meaningful rainfall. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. Temperatures generally above normal are also unfavorable, evaporating more moisture out of soils.

TWO BIG SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in western Europe brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. That may have been favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. Hot and dry conditions in the east have also been unfavorable. The western storm is leaving and pushing eastward for early this week, which should bring needed widespread rainfall to eastern areas. Another system will drop a strong cold front through the continent later this week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures will drop significantly and higher elevation frosts will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE BLACK SEA REGION ON A LIMITED BASIS

It remained dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend, continuing to increase drought. A system moving through eastern Europe will largely wash out as it moves into the region this week, though western areas could see some scattered showers. Another front moving into Europe will have potential for showers in western areas later this week and weekend as well. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, will have very little potential for rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

It was relatively dry in Australia over the weekend. A system will move through eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and produce only pockets of rainfall, a little disappointing for some winter wheat and canola areas that could use some more rain in the northeast. A front will push through this weekend, but not produce much precipitation. Colder air will move in, however, and some areas will be watched for frosts.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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