DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in eastern Canada, with troughs in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies and another ridge in western Canada. The two troughs will combine over the Great Lakes and deepen, making for a deep trough for the weekend. Meanwhile, the western Canada ridge will build through the Canadian Prairies.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough and ridge will slowly move east next week with another trough building in the Pacific Northwest late next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Heat will continue to spread throughout most of the country next week, being very hot across the northern tier. There is some potential for a little system to move into the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies with scattered showers late next week or weekend, while showers continue along the Gulf Coast. The rest of the country looks to stay dry.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...117 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...27 AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...TAMPA, FL 3.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in eastern Canada, with troughs in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies and another ridge in western Canada. The two troughs will combine over the Great Lakes and deepen, making for a deep trough for the weekend. Meanwhile, the western Canada ridge will build through the Canadian Prairies. These features will slowly move east next week with another trough building in the Pacific Northwest late next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Heat will continue to spread throughout most of the country next week, being very hot across the northern tier. There is some potential for a little system to move into the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies with scattered showers late next week or weekend, while showers continue along the Gulf Coast. The rest of the country looks to stay dry.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moving through Wednesday brought some limited showers, but also a burst of cooler air that will last in the Dakotas through the weekend. Warmer temperatures in the west will eventually spread across the region next week and it could get very hot next week. The heat could cause an increase in drought. Some showers may be possible late next week or weekend with the next system moving in.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Texas has seen some good rainfall over the last several days that may have helped the drought situation there. Another front will pass through Thursday and Friday. It will bring some limited showers but also a burst of cooler air that will last through the weekend. Temperatures should rise next week and could be hot in the north. Some drier areas in the region will not get needed rainfall, but much of the crop is now maturing and the lack of rainfall is not causing much of an issue with the later stages of filling corn or soybeans. Soils would enjoy some more rainfall prior to winter wheat planting, and the increased heat will not be favorable either.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent hot and dry conditions could have taken the top off of yields, especially for areas that saw little rain when the temperatures dropped this past weekend. A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers that are not forecast to be widespread or heavy. But it will bring in another burst of cooler air. Lows may drop below 40 degrees in some areas this weekend, but frosts are not forecast to occur in any significant way. Temperatures will gradually rise next week and could get hot again by the end of the week, which could last through the following week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled front could produce precipitation near the Gulf than for the next couple of days, but areas further inland are going to stay dry. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and may bring some light showers, but will bring another burst of cool air. Soil moisture is still low despite recent rainfall and not good for the final stages of filling.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has produced very few showers this week, but will continue through Saturday. Showers will be more prevalent near the Gulf Coast than further inland where they would be more helpful.

Another front will bring additional showers through on Saturday as well as a burst of cooler air. Soil moisture has been low in Alabama and Georgia for a while and an overall lack of moisture here has been damaging.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent warm and dry conditions have been favorable for the continued wheat and canola harvest. A front swept through the region on Wednesday with some showers, but is bringing in a burst of cool air. The cooler temperatures will not last long with temperatures rising this weekend and getting hot next week, further favorable conditions for harvest.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Much of the country is extremely dry to start off planting season. Fronts have been bringing showers to the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far south, where soil moisture is better, but have not been able to produce much farther north than that. Central Brazil will need some rain prior to the wet season for planting to begin on time later this month. That prospect is currently very low and wet season rains may even be delayed into October, a bad sign for both the soybean and coming safrinha corn crops.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The country is very dry for developing wheat and too dry for corn planting in most areas. A front brought very limited showers to the north this week, but most areas stayed drier. A quick burst of cool air is moving through as well, but temperatures will warm up over the weekend into next week. Another front will do something similar in the middle of next week, with rainfall only for northern areas, unfavorable for developing wheat or corn planting.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to spin in western Europe and bring showers there through the weekend before heading east next week. The rainfall will not be good for any remaining wheat harvest or drydown for corn. Eastern areas have been very warm and dry lately, fine for maturing summer crops, but not for thinking about early planting for winter crops. The system that moves eastward next week may be more generous to eastern areas and another may follow it next week. That should also bring some cooler air into the west, possibly very cold.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): A weak system in the Black Sea has brought very limited showers to the far south over the last week and continues for the next couple of days as well. Any rain is too late for filling corn and sunflowers, which have gone through extensive drought this year, and is not good for the start of winter wheat planting either. A system moving through eastern Europe early next week will bring only limited showers into the western portions of the region, though another may follow it for later next week. The window for effect winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean have been and will continue to bring showers through southern areas through the weekend, but will not bring much rain to New South Wales or Queensland, where some drier soils are. Heat in these areas will instead be an issue with the lower soil moisture. We will be watching for a potential system late next week that may be more promising for these drier areas and bring in some cooler air.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers far south Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal south and near normal north Thursday, near normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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