Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dry conditions continuing and heat increasing in the Corn Belt and a dry start to South American spring planting are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRYNESS INCREASING IN THE MIDWEST

Recent hot and dry conditions in the Midwest could have taken the top off yields, especially for areas that saw little rain when the temperatures dropped this past weekend. A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers that are not forecast to be widespread or heavy. But it will bring in another burst of cooler air. Lows may drop below 40 degrees in some areas this weekend, but frosts are not forecast to occur in any significant way. Temperatures will gradually rise next week and could get hot again by the end of the week, which could last through the following week.

DRYNESS WITH INCREASING HEAT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Texas has seen some good rainfall over the last several days that has helped the drought situation there. Another front will pass through the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday. It will bring some limited showers but also a burst of cooler air that will last through the weekend. Temperatures should rise next week and could be hot in the north. Some drier areas in the region will not get needed rainfall, but much of the crop is now maturing and the lack of rainfall is not causing much of an issue with the later stages of filling corn or soybeans. Soils would enjoy some more rainfall prior to winter wheat planting, and the increased heat will not be favorable either.

DRIER, INCREASING HEAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Northern Plains on Wednesday brought some limited showers, but also a burst of cooler air that will last in the Dakotas through the weekend. Warmer temperatures in the west will eventually spread across the region next week and it could get very hot. The heat could cause an increase in drought. Some showers may be possible late next week or weekend with the next system moving in.

MOST OF DELTA STAYING DRY

A stalled front in the Delta could produce precipitation near the Gulf than for the next couple of days, but areas further inland are going to stay dry. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and may bring some light showers but will bring another burst of cool air. Soil moisture is still low despite recent rainfall and not good for the final stages of filling.

HEAT INCREASING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES AFTER COOL BURST

Recent warm and dry conditions in the Canadian Prairies have been favorable for the continued wheat and canola harvest. A front swept through the region on Wednesday with some showers but is bringing in a burst of cool air. The cooler temperatures will not last long with temperatures rising this weekend and getting hot next week, further favorable conditions for harvest.

BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

Much of Brazil is extremely dry to start off planting season. Fronts have been bringing showers to the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far south, where soil moisture is better, but have not been able to produce much farther north than that. Central Brazil will need some rain prior to the wet season for planting to begin on time later this month. That prospect is currently very low and wet season rains may even be delayed into October, a bad sign for both the soybean and coming safrinha corn crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA AS CORN PLANTING BEGINS

Argentina is very dry for developing wheat and corn planting in most areas. A front brought very limited showers to the north this week, but most areas stayed drier. A quick burst of cool air is moving through as well, but temperatures will warm up over the weekend into next week. Another front will do something similar in the middle of next week, with rainfall only for northern areas, unfavorable for developing wheat or corn planting.

TWO BIGGER SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system continues to spin in western Europe and bring showers there through the weekend before heading east next week. The rainfall will not be good for any remaining wheat harvest or dry-down for corn. Eastern areas have been very warm and dry lately, fine for maturing summer crops, but not for thinking about early planting for winter crops. The system that moves eastward next week may be more generous to eastern areas and another may follow it next week. That should also bring some cooler air into the west, possibly very cold.

DROUGHT EXPANDING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A weak system in the Black Sea has brought very limited showers to the far south over the last week and continues for the next couple of days as well. Any rain is too late for filling corn and sunflowers, which have gone through extensive drought this year, and is not good for the start of winter wheat planting either. A system moving through eastern Europe early next week will bring only limited showers into the western portions of the region, though another may follow it for later next week. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean have been and will continue to bring showers through southern Australia through the weekend but will not bring much rain to New South Wales or Queensland, where some drier soils are. Heat in these areas will instead be an issue with the lower soil moisture. We will be watching for a potential system late next week that may be more promising for these drier areas and bring in some cooler air.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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