Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dry conditions continuing in the Corn Belt and a dry start to South American spring planting are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

PATCHY DRYNESS A CONCERN IN THE MIDWEST

Scattered showers occurred in the Midwest over the holiday weekend, but some areas missed out on the rainfall and have been too dry at the end of the growing season for filling corn and soybeans. For the crop that is further along, the conditions have been pushing the crop toward maturity. For those further behind, the lack of rainfall will cause a drop in yields. Temperatures will not be stressful at least for the next week. A front will move through Thursday and Friday with scattered showers that are not forecast to be widespread or heavy. But it will bring in another burst of cooler air. Lows may drop below 40 degrees in some areas this weekend, but frosts are not forecast to occur in any significant way. Temperatures will gradually rise next week and could get hot again by the end of the week.

TEXAS SHOWERS, REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIER

A front settled down into Texas over the holiday weekend and brought widespread rainfall there as well as eliminating extensive heat. Showers will continue in Texas the next couple of days. Another front will pass through Thursday and Friday. It will bring some limited showers but also a burst of cooler air that will last through the weekend. Temperatures should gradually rise next week and could be hot in the north. Some drier areas in the region will not get needed rainfall, but much of the crop is now maturing and the lack of rainfall is not causing much of an issue with the later stages of filling corn or soybeans. Soils would enjoy some more rainfall prior to winter wheat planting, and the increased heat will not be favorable either.

QUICK FRONT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains Wednesday and bring some limited showers, but also a burst of cooler air that will last in the Dakotas through the weekend. Warmer temperatures in the west will eventually spread across the region next week and it could get very hot. The heat could cause an increase in drought.

DELTA DRIER AFTER WET WEEKEND

A stalled front will be in the Delta this week, but precipitation is forecast to be more prevalent near the Gulf than for the rest of the region. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and could bring some additional showers and another burst of cool air. Soil moisture is still low despite recent rainfall, however.

SMALL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent warm and dry conditions in the Canadian Prairies have been favorable for the continued wheat and canola harvest. A front will sweep through the region on Wednesday with some showers and a burst of cool air. The cooler temperatures will not last long with temperatures rising this weekend and getting hot next week.

BRAZIL STILL TOO DRY FOR START OF PLANTING SEASON

Much of Brazil is extremely dry to start off planting season. A front brought limited showers to Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend, where soil moisture is better. Another front will move in with showers for Wednesday and Thursday for southern Brazil. In some areas, the rain will be beneficial, in others it will be too light. Rain is not forecast to make it into central Brazil which would need some rain prior to the wet season rains for planting to begin on time later this month.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA AS CORN PLANTING BEGINS

Argentina is very dry for developing wheat and too dry for corn planting in most areas. A front brought scattered showers to Buenos Aires over the weekend, but not much to anywhere else. Another front will move through the north on Wednesday with some showers there. A quick burst of cool air will move through as well but warm up over the weekend into next week. Another front will do something similar in the middle of next week, with rainfall only for northern areas, unfavorable for wheat or corn.

WESTERN RAINS A CONTINUED THEME IN EUROPE

A front brought scattered showers into western Europe over the weekend and the system responsible remains in these areas for much of the week. The rainfall will not be good for any remaining wheat harvest or dry-down for corn. Eastern areas are very warm and largely dry this week, fine for summer crops, but not for thinking about early planting for winter crops. The system will move eastward next week and may be more generous to eastern areas. That should also bring some cooler air into the west, possibly very cold.

DROUGHT EXPANDING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A weak system in the Black Sea has brought very limited showers to the far south over the last week and continues the rest of this week as well. It is largely too late for filling corn and sunflowers, which have gone through extensive drought this year, and is not good for the start of winter wheat planting either. Outside of these small patches of showers, drought continues to grow.

NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA COULD USE MORE RAIN

Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week and next will skirt some showers through southern Australia but will not bring much rain to New South Wales or Queensland, where some drier soils are. Heat in these areas will instead be an issue with the lower soil moisture.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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