Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and dry conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt, showers continuing in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for wheat harvest, and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COOL AND DRY IN THE MIDWEST

A system continued to bring scattered showers to the eastern portions of the Midwest over the weekend. Though the system was a slow-mover it didn't bring rain to all areas and some in the east are a bit too dry as corn and soybeans continue to fill. It will be much drier this week, although temperatures will be mild. Temperatures will rise this weekend, but a system could follow behind the heat and bring some showers through next week. Models are not consistent on the precipitation forecast. A slight drop in temperatures will be possible with the system as well.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some areas of showers developed over the weekend and a string of heavier rain fell over eastern areas of the Central and Southern Plains, helping filling corn and soybeans where they occurred. It continued to be very hot south of a stalled boundary, but the boundary will get a push southward this week, eliminating some of the excessive heat, but not all. It should remain hot in Texas. Some showers may develop this week, but they likely stay off to the north and be very isolated, with soil moisture dropping again. Temperatures will start to rise late this week and likely last through the weekend, which may cause stress. Though temperatures are forecast to relax next week as a system moves through, the prospect for precipitation is low and conditions could remain stressful for filling corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, mostly over the drier areas in the region. Scattered showers will be possible every day for the next week, which may bring some unneeded rainfall to mature wheat areas and overly wet corn and soybean areas. Loss of quality and delays to harvest will be possible for wheat.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY STILL IN THE DELTA

Some isolated showers moved through the Delta over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry, a continuation of the hot and dry conditions from recent weeks and stressful for many of the region's filling soybeans and cotton crops. A couple days of heat relief are coming to the region early this week, but temperatures should rise again this weekend. Very little precipitation is forecast, continuing the stress.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers fell across the Canadian Prairies this weekend and some heat returned to Saskatchewan. Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast through the end of the month. Disturbances moving through the region will bring additional showers through this week and possibly next week. Maturing wheat and canola could use some dry conditions for harvest. The rain could be heavy in small locations, which could reduce quality and delay harvest.

ANOTHER COLD SHOT COMING TO BRAZIL

A front moved into the far southern sections of Rio Grande do Sul, producing some showers this weekend. The front will be stuck there for the next few days, which will keep shower chances going. That would help wheat in that state and prep soils for full-season corn planting. The front will get pushed a little farther north late this week and weekend with some showers into Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Little or none is forecast for Central Brazil, which would enjoy some early rain prior to soybean planting which cannot start up until September 1 and will likely wait until wet season rains become consistent later in the month.

MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO ARGENTINA

A system moved into Argentina this weekend but did not produce much precipitation. The system will linger through midweek and scattered showers will be possible, but the country needs widespread heavy rain for developing wheat and to prep soils for corn planting that begins next month. Cold air moving into the country with the system will lead to more frosts and some freezes, which may be damaging for more advanced wheat in the north.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

A system pushed a cold front into Europe over the weekend, bringing scattered showers from France to Poland down to the Mediterranean. The moisture was favorable for southern areas, especially when dealing with recent heat, but not for northern areas that have been very wet this year. Another system will push through northern areas later this week and another front looks to move into the west this weekend with scattered showers. Temperatures will still be hot in the southeast, but many areas will see more seasonable temperatures this week. Heat may return to more areas this weekend into next week, being stressful in the south where soil moisture is lower.

DROUGHT WORSENING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It was hot and dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend, as drought continues to increase across eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Other areas in the region have better conditions for filling corn and sunflowers. Limited showers will be possible this week across the west and north but leave drought areas dry. Temperatures remain hot and stressful as well.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through western and southern areas of Australia over the weekend, keeping soil moisture favorable in these areas. A few systems moving through the Southern Ocean will continue to bring showers to these areas this week. Northeastern areas got some needed rain last week, but it will be drier this week. Temperatures will stay warm this week, increasing development of wheat and canola, but possibly drying out areas in the northeast a bit.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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