Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild temperatures in the U.S. Corn Belt with dryness next week, showers continuing in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for wheat harvest, and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COOL AND DRY IN THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A system is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Midwest over the next several days, leaving eastward this weekend. Rainfall has been widespread and includes some heavy amounts in some areas, but most areas are seeing light to moderate rain. Temperatures remain mild and are forecast to largely stay that way through next week, gradually increasing late next week. Though it gets drier next week, conditions are largely favorable for filling corn and soybeans.

ISOLATED PRECIP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers this week helped to keep temperatures down and increase soil moisture in the Central and Southern Plains. After one more day of scattered thunderstorms Friday, it should be drier through next week, though some showers may develop at times. Temperatures remain hot in Texas and mild farther north but should be on a general increase next week. That could become stressful for some areas by the end of next week, especially those that might have missed out on rain this week.

MILD WITH SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some heavy rain moved through the Dakotas over the last two days, unfavorable for wheat quality and harvest, and keeping some corn and soybean spots too wet as well. A few systems and disturbances will be moving into the region over the next week, providing occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should generally be rising into next week. The rain may continue to interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN DELTA

There is a chance for scattered showers in the Delta with a front moving through this weekend and some isolated showers may linger into next week. Temperatures have risen ahead of the front, but will fall a bit behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A few disturbances will move through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers going through next week. Overall heavy rain is not forecast, though some areas could see a few downpours from thunderstorms. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful as wheat and canola are maturing and could cause a reduction in quality and harvest delays in some areas.

ANOTHER COLD SHOT COMING TO BRAZIL

Limited frosts have occurred in far southern Brazil earlier this week, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. A stronger cold front will move into far southern Brazil next week but may not get farther north until late in the week. While it will bring some showers, it will also bring another round of cold air and potential for frosts across the south. Soybeans need to wait until September before they are legally allowed to be planted, but full-season corn can start up whenever producers like. Producers in the south will likely wait for the frost potential to subside.

MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO ARGENTINA

A system moves through Argentina this weekend and early next week with limited showers, but another burst of cold air, especially late next week. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter. The rounds of cold air have not been favorable either and may start to produce damage to some of the more advanced wheat in the north.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be hot for much of Europe going into next week, especially the east. A front stalled from the Alps to Poland has seen some showers. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend into early next week with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but have been seeing some needed rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week hasn't been helpful. A couple more fronts will likely move into the continent later next week with some more rain.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It continues to be awfully dry in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia and it is too late for rain to do anything other than stabilize a poor crop. Conditions elsewhere in the region are better. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, hitting the better areas in the west and skipping over the poorer ones in the east. Temperatures will be increasing through the weekend and be stressful again in those drier areas next week.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA

A disturbance in the Pacific brought showers to northeastern Australia this week but has moved offshore. This region really needed the rain and has gotten some good amounts. A system moved through western areas with some showers earlier this week and is now spreading showers through southeastern areas the next couple of days, beneficial there as well. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to move through the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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