Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and showery weather in the U.S. Corn Belt this week, discrepancies concerning temperatures in the Plains next week, and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

A system is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Midwest over the next several days, leaving eastward this weekend. Temperatures remain mild and are forecast to largely stay that way through next week. Though it gets drier next week again, conditions are largely favorable for filling corn and soybeans.

SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of moderate to heavy rain have moved through the Central Plains this week. Though it will likely be drier after Friday, isolated showers will be possible through next week. Conditions are currently favorable for filling corn and soybeans. A ridge should bring higher temperatures northward this weekend and into next week, though models disagree on that. If the heat returns, there could be some significant stress developing in the region with the lower coverage of precipitation again.

MILD WITH SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some heavy rain occurred in the Dakotas on Wednesday, unfavorable for wheat quality and harvest, and keeping some corn and soybean spots too wet. A few systems and disturbances will be moving into the region over the next week, providing occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should generally be rising into next week, though models disagree on that somewhat. The rain may continue to interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN THE DELTA

A system moving through the Corn Belt the next few days may bring some showers through the Delta, but most areas should continue to stay dry. There is a better chance with a front moving through this weekend and some isolated showers may linger into next week. Temperatures are rising out ahead of the front but will fall a bit behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST TRYING TO DRY OUT FROM DEBBY

Showers continued in the Carolinas the last several days, adding to the heavy rain from Debby last week, but wound down on Wednesday. Western areas have been hot and drier. Limited showers and overall hot temperatures should reduce soil moisture for most of the region the next several days, which is good for those in the east, but poor for those in the west. A front moving through this weekend may bring some more widespread showers and some slight relief to temperatures, but the region needs more consistent rainfall for filling crops.

SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A few disturbances will move through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers going through next week. Overall heavy rain is not forecast, though some areas could see a few downpours from thunderstorms. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful as wheat and canola are maturing and could cause a reduction in quality and delay harvest in some areas.

ANOTHER COLD SHOT COMING TO BRAZIL

Limited frosts have occurred in far southern Brazil earlier this week, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Temperatures are rising the next few days. A stronger cold front will move into far southern Brazil next week but may not get farther north until late in the week. While it will bring some showers, it will also bring another round of cold air and potential for frosts across the south. Soybeans need to wait until September before they are legally allowed to be planted, but corn can start up whenever producers like. Most producers in central states will wait until the end of September when the wet season rains hopefully return. And producers in the south will likely wait for the frost potential to subside.

MORE COLD AIR COMING FOR ARGENTINA

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina late last week, with more spotty frosts early this week. A system moves through this weekend and early next week with limited showers, but another burst of cold air, especially late next week. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter. The rounds of cold air have not been favorable either and may start to produce damage to some of the more advanced wheat in the north.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be hot for much of Europe going into next week, especially the east. A front stalled from the Alps to Poland will see showers continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend into early next week with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but have been seeing some needed rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week hasn't been helpful. A couple more fronts will likely move into the continent later next week with some more rain.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It continues to be awfully dry in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia and it is too late for rain to do anything other than stabilize a poor crop. Conditions elsewhere in the region are better. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, hitting the better areas in the west and skipping over the poorer ones in the east. Temperatures will be increasing through the weekend and be stressful again in those drier areas next week.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA

A disturbance in the Pacific brought showers to northeastern areas this week but has moved offshore. This region really needed the rain and has gotten some good amounts. A system moved through western areas with some showers earlier this week and is now spreading showers through southeastern areas the next couple of days, beneficial there as well. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to graze the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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