Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and showery weather in the U.S. Corn Belt this week, discrepancies concerning next week, and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

Another burst of showers went through Missouri on Tuesday. A system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Midwest over the next several days, leaving eastward this weekend. Temperatures remain mild and are forecast to largely stay that way into next week. A front may come through early next week with limited showers but another burst of cooler air that will keep conditions largely favorable for filling corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of moderate to heavy rain moved through the Central Plains on Tuesday. Scattered showers may continue for the next few days, and even isolated showers will be possible next week. Conditions are overall favorable for filling corn and soybeans currently. A ridge should bring higher temperatures northward this weekend and into next week, though models disagree on that. If the heat returns, there could be some significant stress developing in the region again.

MILD WITH SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few systems and disturbances will be moving into the Northern Plains over the next week, providing occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should generally be rising into next week, though models disagree on that somewhat. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN THE DELTA

Soil moisture continues to fall across Delta as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. A system moving through the Corn Belt the next few days may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most areas should stay dry. There is a better chance with a front moving through this weekend and some isolated showers may linger into next week. Temperatures are rising out ahead of the front but will fall a bit behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST TRYING TO DRY OUT FROM DEBBY

Showers have continued in the Carolinas the last several days, adding to the heavy rain from Debby last week and keeping soils unfavorably wet and soggy. Western areas of the Southeast have been hot and drier. Limited showers and overall hot temperatures should reduce soil moisture for most of the region this week, which is good for those in the east, but poor for those in the west. A front moving through this weekend may bring some more showers and some slight relief to temperatures, but the region needs more consistent rainfall for filling crops.

SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A few disturbances will move through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers going through next week. Overall heavy rain is not forecast, though some areas could see a few downpours from thunderstorms. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful as wheat and canola are maturing and could cause a reduction in quality and harvest delays in some areas.

BRAZIL IS VERY DRY AND COLD AHEAD OF PLANTING SEASON

Limited frosts have occurred in far southern Brazil the last several days, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Temperatures will be rising for the next few days. A stronger cold front will move through next week. While it may bring some showers, it will also bring another round of cold air and potential for frosts across the south. Soybeans need to wait until September before planting is legally allowed to occur, but corn can start up whenever producers like. Most producers in central states will wait until the end of September when the wet season rains hopefully return. And producers in the south will likely wait for the frost potential to subside.

DRY AND COLD IN ARGENTINA

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina late last week, with more spotty frosts early this week. A system moves through this weekend and early next week with limited showers, but another burst of cold air that could produce more widespread frosts. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting up next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter. The rounds of cold air have not been favorable either and may start to produce damage in the north.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures continue to be hot for much of Europe this week, especially the east. A front moving through western areas will stall from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but should cash in on some rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week won't help either.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system in northwestern Russia has not provided much precipitation to a region that has been awfully dry in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia and it is too late for rain to do anything other than stabilize a poor crop. Conditions elsewhere in the region are better. Very little precipitation is forecast for the next week, hitting the better areas and skipping over the poor ones. Temperatures will be increasing through the weekend and be stressful again in those drier areas.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

A disturbance in the Pacific continues to bring showers to northeastern Australia Wednesday before moving back offshore. This region really needed the rain and has gotten some good amounts so far. A system moved through western areas with some showers on Tuesday, with showers spreading through southeastern areas late this week, beneficial there as well. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to graze the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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