Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and showery weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

A system brought showers to the southwestern Midwest on Monday and another will be similar for Tuesday. A more developed system will slowly push through Wednesday through Saturday with more widespread precipitation throughout the region. A few showers may go through midweek as well, but models are in disagreement over that. Temperatures continue to be mild through at least the weekend but probably well into next week as well. The combination of wetter and mild is a good one for filling corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several disturbances will push through the Central and Southern Plains this week with scattered showers nearly every day through at least Friday and possibly into next week, unusual for mid-August but overall good for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures are hot in the south and will gradually rise to the north. Next week could feature more intense heat though models are in a large disagreement about that potential.

MILD WITH SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue in the Northern Plains through at least Friday, but could stay in the region into next week. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.

SOIL MOISTURE DECLINING IN THE DELTA

Soil moisture continues to fall across the Delta as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. Several systems will move through the Corn Belt this week, which may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most likely it stays unfavorably dry again this week. There is a better chance with a front moving through this weekend. Temperatures will rise out ahead of the front, but fall behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST TRYING TO DRY OUT FROM DEBBY

Scattered showers continued on the Atlantic Coast in the Southeast this weekend and Monday, adding to the heavy rain from Debby last week and keeping soils unfavorably wet and soggy, especially in the eastern Carolinas. Western areas were hot and drier. Limited showers and overall hot temperatures should reduce soil moisture for most of the region this week, which is good for those in the east, but poor for those in the west. A front moving through this weekend may bring some more showers and some slight relief to temperatures, but the region needs more consistent rainfall for filling crops.

SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A few disturbances will move through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers through at least the weekend and likely through next week as well. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful and could cause a reduction in quality and delays to harvest in some areas.

BRAZIL IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF PLANTING SEASON

A front continued to produce showers across south-central Brazil this weekend, but cold air moving in behind the front produced some limited frosts, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The cold air sticks around for another couple of days but should turn hot again later this week. It should be drier across the country this week, but southern areas have some fairly good soil moisture at the moment. The region will need more moisture before first-crop soybeans and full-season corn can be planted. A stronger cold front will move through next week. While it may bring some showers, it will also bring another round of cold air and potential for frosts across the south. Soybeans need to wait until September before it is legally allowed to occur, but corn can start up whenever producers like. Most producers in central states will wait until the end of September when the wet season rains hopefully return.

DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA STILL A CONCERN AHEAD OF PLANTING

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina late last week, which occurred again on Monday. A system moves through this weekend and early next week with limited showers and another burst of cold air. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting up next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter. The rounds of cold air have not been favorable either.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, SOME SHOWERS IN EUROPE

Temperatures will be hot for much of Europe this week. A front that moves into western areas Tuesday and Wednesday, getting stuck from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but should cash in on some rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week won't help either.

DROUGHT IS UNRELENTING IN BLACK SEA REGION

Largely hot and dry conditions occurred in the Black Sea region again over the weekend, continuing drought and heat stress for corn and sunflowers in the region. A system is in northwestern Russia for the next couple of days, but will not provide much precipitation. It is bringing in some cooler temperatures for a few days, though temperatures should rise late this week and weekend again. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have gone through some very poor weather this summer.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

A disturbance in the Pacific continues to bring showers to northeastern Australia through Wednesday before moving back offshore. This region needed the rain. A system moves through western areas with some showers on Tuesday, with showers spreading through southeastern areas late this week. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to graze the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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