Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild and showery weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and a dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE MIDWEST

It was a cool and mostly dry weekend in the Midwest, keeping stress and water demand low for the region for filling corn and soybeans. A couple of systems will pass through the region this week and models have picked up on the precipitation forecast, leaving many areas with good moisture through the coming weekend. Cool temperatures will rise this week but stay mild and not stressful during this important stretch for both crops.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy flooding rain developed in Oklahoma over the weekend, but other areas of the Central and Southern Plains stayed dry or saw only light rain. Texas was hot while the rest of the region was much cooler. Several disturbances will push through the region this week with scattered showers nearly every day, unusual for mid-August but overall good for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures will gradually rise this week, but only be hot across the south. Next week could feature more intense heat though models are in a large disagreement about that potential.

MILD AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved back into the Northern Plains this weekend and multiple disturbances moving into the region will keep up shower chances throughout this week and next. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

It was dry in the Delta over the weekend, continuing the trend from the last two weeks. Temperatures were mild across the north, but hot in the south. Soil moisture continues to fall across the region as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. Several systems will move through the Corn Belt this week, which may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most likely it stays unfavorably dry again for most areas this week.

SOUTHEAST STILL SEEING RAIN AFTER FLOOD FROM DEBBY

Scattered showers continued in the Carolinas this weekend, adding to the heavy rain from Debby last week and keeping soils unfavorably wet and soggy. Western areas of the Southeast were hotter and drier. Limited showers and overall hot temperatures should reduce soil moisture for most of the region this week, which is good for those in the east, but poor for those in the west.

SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

It was cool and dry in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. Some patchy frost may have occurred as well, though hard to detect. A few disturbances will move through the region with scattered showers this week and likely through next week as well. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful and could cause a reduction in quality and delays to harvest in some areas.

BRAZIL IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF PLANTING SEASON

A front continued to produce showers across south-central Brazil this weekend, but cold air moving in behind the front produced some limited frosts, which might have hurt more advanced wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The cold air sticks around for another couple of days but should turn hot again later this week. It should be drier across the country this week, but southern areas have some fairly good soil moisture at the moment. The country will need more moisture before first-crop soybeans and full-season corn can be planted. Soybeans need to wait until September before it is legally allowed to occur, but corn can start up whenever producers like. Most producers in central states will wait until the end of September when the wet season rains hopefully return.

DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA STILL A CONCERN AHEAD OF PLANTING

Cold air produced widespread frosts and freezes in Argentina late last week. Some more limited frosts will continue early this week. Another system moves through this weekend and early next week with limited showers and another burst of cold air. Soil moisture in the country is low in most areas and more is needed prior to planting starting up next month. Winter wheat needs some more significant rainfall for it to develop properly after poor rains this winter.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN EUROPE

A front moved through northern Europe with some isolated showers this weekend while temperatures rose. Temperatures will be hot for much of the continent this week. There will be a front that moves into western areas Tuesday and Wednesday, getting stuck from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops. Germany has been the epicenter of conditions that have been too wet and more falling this week won't help either.

DROUGHT IN BLACK SEA REGION STILL A CONCERN

Largely hot and dry conditions occurred again in the Black Sea region over the weekend, continuing drought and heat stress for corn and sunflowers. A system is in northwestern Russia for the next few days, but will not provide much, if any, precipitation. It will bring in some cooler temperatures for a few days, though. Temperatures should rise late this week and weekend again, however.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

A disturbance in the Pacific started to bring some showers into northeastern Australia this weekend. The disturbance will stick around for the next few days with more showers possible. Western areas also saw some limited showers with a front this weekend. Another system moves through with some showers to western areas on Tuesday, with showers spreading through southeastern areas late this week. Another couple of disturbances are forecast to graze the country this weekend and next week and could keep mostly good soil moisture going for most areas while temperatures stay mild to warm, good for developing winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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