Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild temperatures in the U.S. Corn Belt, rain for the Plains, and potential frosts for the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

QUESTIONABLE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

Mild air continues to be settled into the Midwest going into next week. The forecast for next week is questionable as some small disturbances may move through with periods of showers along a front that will lift back north into the region, but models disagree about timing, location, coverage, and intensity of the rainfall. Temperatures should gradually rise throughout the week, but showers moving through may disrupt that if they occur. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress. Still, soil moisture is rather good for most of the region outside of Missouri, which stands the best chance for precipitation next week.

MILDER AIR, SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front that moved into the Central and Southern Plains has stalled out around the western Kansas-Oklahoma area and will be a focal point for precipitation going into next week before it lifts northward. A disturbance or two may bring showers to Nebraska next week as well. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures north of the front are very comfortable and a nice break from earlier heat while it stays hot to the south. Temperatures will be on a gradual increase next week as the front lifts northward.

COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

After a couple of dry days, more showers are possible in the Northern Plains this weekend and much of next week as a few little systems pass through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is too late for the wheat crop but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding. Temperatures will continue to be cool through the weekend, gradually rising next week.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Hot and dry conditions since last week have caused a significant drop in soil moisture in the Delta. A front moving into the region will stall out going into next week but may not produce any rain. Models disagree if there exists any significant potential for seeing rain, which would be more likely across the north than the south. Temperatures will be cool across the north, but still hot in the south. Temperatures should be on a gradual increase next week.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST

The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby are moving north along the East Coast on Friday. The storm has left heavy rain and flooding across northern Florida, eastern Georgia, and the Carolinas, which will impact crop quality. Though any drought that had been in the area may be eliminated, wet soils will cause damage to a crop that had seen a nice turnaround. Drier conditions across the Gulf Coast with high heat are quickly reducing soil moisture there. Showers may move back in toward the Gulf Coast this weekend though and are possible through much of next week in the region. That would not help the wet situation in the east, however. Another potential tropical system is being watched for next week.

POTENTIAL FROSTS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A cold pocket of air in the Canadian Prairies will last the next several days. A reduction in winds and cloud cover have led to very patchy frosts in Saskatchewan and may continue in some areas over the next morning or two. Temperatures will gradually rise next week. Showers may return by early next week and come in several waves afterward. The recent cooler and wetter conditions would be favorable outside of any frost potential but are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way toward early maturity after sustaining heat and dryness in July.

VERY COLD IN ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina this week, but did not produce much rainfall outside of the state of Buenos Aires. Dryness elsewhere is a concern as soil moisture continues to fall across much of the country. A burst of much colder air is moving through behind the system and is leading to frosts and hard freezes in some areas, with another burst of cooler air this weekend into early next week. Frost should not be harmful to vegetative wheat, but some of the freezes might be.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EUROPE

A front continues to go through northern Europe Friday and Saturday with some more showers. Northern areas have seen the bulk of the rain over the last week. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting the remaining wheat or for developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven't had much rain lately across the south. Northern areas appear to be active again next week with another couple of fronts moving through with scattered showers.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A disturbance coming from Europe is producing showers in the west and a front coming through this weekend may produce a few more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures have been increasing the drought stress in the region, though temperatures will fall behind the front for a couple of days next week. Rainfall in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia has been well below normal and very sporadic when it has come and causing damage to corn and sunflowers.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat. Some showers may move off the Pacific into the region this weekend into next week that would be beneficial while a front or two scrapes through southeastern areas with some showers as well. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through this weekend and next week are bringing some more. Overall, beneficial conditions are in place for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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