Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt, Tropical Storm Debby flooding the Southeast, and potential frosts for the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ANOTHER COOL BURST SPREADING THROUGH MIDWEST

A front brought in some milder air to the Midwest and another front will push through over the next few days with another burst of cooler air. Models do not produce much precipitation with the front but have some patches of showers moving through that will miss more areas than they hit. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress. The forecast for next week is questionable as some small disturbances may move through with periods of showers along the front stalled across the south, but models disagree with timing, coverage, and intensity of the rainfall. Temperatures should gradually rise throughout the week, but showers moving through may disrupt that.

MILDER AIR, SOME SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move into the Central Plains Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of cooler air. The front may not get into the Southern Plains, however, leaving most of the cooler temperatures across the Central Plains. The largely stalled front will produce some waves of showers throughout the weekend and next week, but models disagree on the coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. After a cooler weekend across the north, temperatures should rise again next week.

COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is pushing a front through the Northern Plains on Wednesday with scattered showers, and cooler air settling into the region going into next week. More showers are possible this weekend and next week as a couple of little systems pass through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Dry conditions and hot temperatures since last week have caused a significant drop in soil moisture in the Delta. A front moving into northern areas later this week will not produce any rain but will depress temperatures at least a little bit going through the weekend. But with a front in the north, some showers may be possible next week. Models disagree on the timing and intensity of the potential rainfall though. Temperatures will be hotter to the south and drier conditions there will continue to lower soil moisture, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

HURRICANE DEBBY CONTINUES TO FLOOD CAROLINAS

Tropical Storm Debby moved offshore on Tuesday but will move back into South Carolina Thursday before racing northeast for Friday. The storm has already dumped a ton of rain in the Southeast, which continues until it leaves. While drought is likely to be eliminated, flooding and root lodging could cause damage to a crop that had seen a nice turnaround lately. Drier conditions across the west with high heat are quickly reducing soil moisture. Showers may move back in this weekend though and are possible through much of next week. That would not help the wet situation in the east, however.

POTENTIAL FROSTS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system has brought scattered showers to the Canadian Prairies this week and is finally moving off to the east, but it will continue some showers across the east through Thursday. Temperatures are also very cool and a reduction in winds and cloud cover could lead to very patchy frosts in some northwestern areas over the next couple of mornings. Temperatures will stay cool through the weekend, gradually rising next week. Showers may return by the middle of next week. The recent cooler and wetter conditions are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity after sustaining heat and dryness in July. In fact, the recent and forecast rain could lead to quality issues in some areas while delaying the early portions of harvest.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A system is moving through Argentina but has not produced much rainfall yet. Southeastern areas could see some rain through Thursday before the system is finally gone. Dryness elsewhere is a concern as soil moisture continues to fall across much of the country. A burst of much colder air will move through with the system and lead to frosts, with another burst of cooler air this weekend into early next week, though frost should not be harmful to vegetative wheat.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN EUROPE

A front will go through Europe the next couple of days and another looks to go through late week with showers targeting northern areas with anything of substance, and Germany and Poland especially. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting the remaining wheat or developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will be above normal between fronts and rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven't had much rain lately across the south. Northern areas appear to be active again next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A disturbance coming from Europe will produce a few showers for the next couple of days in the Black Sea region. And a front coming through this weekend may produce more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures will continue drought stress as well, though they will probably fall behind the front for a couple of days next week.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat, but eastern areas will stay dry for the next few days. Some showers may move off the Pacific into the region this weekend into next week that would be beneficial while a front or two scrapes through southeastern areas with some showers as well. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through Tuesday and Wednesday are bringing more, as will a front this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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