Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt, Tropical Storm Debby flooding the Southeast, and potential frosts for the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COOL BURST SPREADING THROUGH MIDWEST

A front continues to push through most of the Midwest the next couple of days with milder air and another front will push through late this week and weekend with another burst of cooler air. Models do not produce much precipitation but have some patches of showers that will miss more areas than they hit. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the forecast reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress.

MILDER AIR, SOME SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BUT NOT SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will continue to sag south into the Central Plains Tuesday with some milder temperatures across the north. Another front will move into the region with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for late this week and weekend. The front may not get into the Southern Plains, however. More rain will be possible this weekend and next week, but models disagree on the coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans across northern zones. After a cooler weekend across the north, temperatures should rise again next week.

COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will send another front into the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers, and cooler air settling into the region going into next week. More showers are possible this weekend and next week, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Dry conditions are expected all this week in the Delta despite a front moving into northern areas early this week and another to move in late week. Temperatures are likely to stay above normal, but the confidence of heat lasting into next week is low. Either way, the lack of rainfall will cause soil moisture to continue to fall and some areas are getting dry, unfavorable for filling soybeans and cotton.

HURRICANE DEBBY FLOODING SOUTHEAST WITH HEAVY RAIN

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to slowly move through the Southeast the next several days before finally moving northeast this weekend. Heavy rain and flooding are likely from southeast Georgia through the Carolinas for the remainder of this week and could cause damage to filling crops. The winds from the storm are less of a concern than the rain but could cause some damage on their own with lodging in wet soils as well.

POTENTIAL FROSTS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system will continue to push eastward across the Canadian Prairies through Wednesday and could leave behind an upper-level low into the weekend. Widespread showers have occurred and will continue this week and temperatures will be much cooler than the last few weeks. If skies can clear out, some patchy frost is not out of the picture the next few nights. Even so, the better weather conditions are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity. In fact, the rain could lead to quality issues in some areas while delaying the early portions of harvest.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A system will move into Argentina on Tuesday and spread rain through more of the country through Wednesday, and even Thursday in the southeast, but dry soils need more than what is forecast to fall. A burst of much colder air will move through with the system and lead to frosts, with another burst of cooler air this weekend into early next week, though frost should not be harmful to vegetative wheat.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN EUROPE

A front will go through Europe the next couple of days and another looks to go through late week with showers targeting northern areas with anything of substance, and Germany and Poland especially. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting wheat or developing corn and other spring grains. Temperatures will be above normal between fronts and rise this weekend across most of the continent, being more stressful for areas that haven't had much rain lately across the south.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A disturbance in southwestern Russia continues Tuesday before exiting eastward into Kazakhstan. Another disturbance coming from Europe will produce a few showers for the next few days and a front coming through this weekend may produce more, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures will continue drought stress as well, though they will probably fall behind the front for a couple of days next week.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA

A disturbance brought limited showers to eastern Australia Sunday and Monday but will then be much drier the rest of the week. Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through Tuesday and Wednesday should bring more.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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