Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A break in the heat for the U.S. Corn Belt, Hurricane Debby flooding the Southeast, and late relief for the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COOL BURST COMING TO MIDWEST

A front dipped into the Midwest over the weekend, bringing some milder air into the north. The front will push through most of the region the next couple of days and another front will push through late this week and weekend with another burst of cooler air. Models disagree with the development of showers with both fronts but agree that northern areas are more likely to see showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, there is significant uncertainty. The path of Hurricane Debby may also play a role in whether rain will fall over eastern sections of the region later this week. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the forecast reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress.

MILDER AIR, SOME SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BUT NOT SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was much drier in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend while temperatures remained above normal with triple digit heat in some areas. A front will sag south into the region early this week with some milder temperatures across the north. Another front will move into the region with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for late this week and weekend. The front may not get into the Southern Plains, however, and models disagree on the coverage and intensity of the rain that will come with both fronts. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans across northern zones.

COOLER AND SHOWERY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front dropped into the Northern Plains over the weekend but only brought isolated showers, which continue Monday. Another system quickly forms behind it for Tuesday and will send another front and much cooler air into the region for the rest of the week. Scattered showers are likely with the front moving through and additional precipitation is forecast to fall going into next week, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop, but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

Very few showers developed in the Delta this weekend as a weak front slid through. Dry conditions are expected all this week despite a front moving into northern areas over the next couple of days. Temperatures are likely to stay above normal, but the confidence of heat lasting into next week is low. Either way, the lack of rainfall will cause soil moisture to continue to fall and some areas are getting dry, unfavorable for filling soybeans and cotton.

HURRICANE DEBBY SLAMMING SOUTHEAST WITH DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN

Hurricane Debby is coming ashore early Monday morning in the Big Bend area of Florida. The track of the storm has it moving slowly through the Southeast throughout the week as a tropical storm before finally moving offshore this weekend. Heavy rain and flooding are likely from the Big Bend through the Carolinas this week and could cause damage to filling crops. The winds from the storm are less of a concern than the rain but could cause some damage on their own with lodging in wet soils as well.

COOLER WITH SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A front moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend and brought some scattered showers. Rainfall was not very heavy or widespread, though. A system forming in Alberta will push slowly eastward through Wednesday and could leave behind an upper-level low into the weekend. Widespread showers are forecast this week with all the activity occurring and temperatures will be much cooler than the last few weeks. Even so, the better weather conditions are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity. In fact, the rain could lead to quality issues in some areas while delaying the early portions of harvest.

STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Rains caught portions of the eastern wheat areas in Argentina over the weekend as a front came through, but many areas continued to be dry. A system will move into the region on Tuesday and spread rain through more of the country through Wednesday, and even Thursday in the southeast, but dry soils need more than what is forecast to fall. A burst of much colder air will move through with the system and lead to some frosts, though they should not be harmful to vegetative wheat.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN EUROPE

A small disturbance continued with scattered showers across eastern Europe over the weekend while another front moved into France and Germany. Showers were favorably absent for most of France but spread through Germany and will continue across northeastern Europe for early this week. Another front will go through midweek and another looks to go through late week with showers targeting northern areas with anything of substance -- Germany and Poland especially. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting wheat or developing corn and other spring grains.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A disturbance moved into the Black Sea region with scattered showers and streaks of rainfall this weekend, but many areas saw little or no rain. The disturbance continues Monday and Tuesday in southwestern Russia before exiting eastward into Kazakhstan. Some additional showers may occur in small areas of the region the rest of the week with additional disturbances coming from Europe, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures will continue drought stress as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA

A disturbance is bringing limited showers to eastern Australia Sunday and Monday, but then will be much drier the rest of the week. Some areas in Queensland could use some more rain for vegetative wheat. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through midweek should bring more.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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