Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot August forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt with a cool shot next week and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A front moving through Tuesday continues to produce clusters of showers and thunderstorms for the Midwest. Another front moves through Wednesday through Friday with more potential showers and thunderstorms. Both fronts are focal points for severe weather as temperatures rise and create stress where showers don't occur. A cold front will drop into far northern areas this weekend with milder air and will be pushed through the region next week. Showers will occur along this front as well. Despite all the chances for showers, they will come in clusters and many areas are going to be missed. Those that are missed will see declining soil moisture and crop conditions.

TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers will move through the Central and Southern Plains, but coverage is likely to be quite low. Despite the fronts, temperatures should continue to be hot and stressful, reducing soil moisture and crop health.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue with another front moving through the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, though mostly in the Dakotas. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through the region early next week. Temperatures will be above normal this week, creating stress for those who do not see much rainfall. Cooler conditions develop at least briefly behind the front moving through next week.

HOT AND DRY IN THE DELTA

An upper-level low brought scattered showers to the Delta over the weekend. Fronts moving through the Corn Belt are unlikely to keep the showers going for much of the region this week. Instead, temperatures should be high and stressful. Soil moisture is currently favorable in much of the region that could help sustain through the heat, but it will be declining.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of fronts will move through the Canadian Prairies this week, but the coverage of precipitation is forecast to be low. Temperatures are increasing again, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Soil moisture continues to decline and is becoming critical for wheat and canola in their critical stages of reproduction and fill. Milder air will move in behind a cold front this weekend and another burst of mild air moves across next week, especially across the east.

DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

It was largely dry in Argentina over the weekend despite a front moving through. The dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through late this week and weekend but forecast rainfall is for eastern areas of the country and much lighter than the country needs.

BURST OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Southeastern Europe continue to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton despite some irregular precipitation over the last few weeks. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will move through central Europe this week very slowly, getting some rain into needed areas but also more rain into France and Germany that do not need it. Several more fronts are lining up to move through this weekend and next week, with the focus for showers occurring mostly in the northwest that does not need more rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

A system is slowly pressing through the Black Sea region with areas of isolated showers through Wednesday. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week as well. Rain may occur for some lucky areas but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures are also forecast to return to the hot conditions that have caused drought and stress over the last several weeks.

SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN, SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

Northeastern Australia received some rain over the weekend, but northeastern New South Wales was the only area to see anything substantial. Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here. A couple of fronts will go through western areas with scattered showers early this week. One of these fronts will bring showers to southern areas later this week but will leave much of the eastern wheat belt dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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