Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot August forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt with a cool shot at the end of next week and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

An upper-level low moved into the Midwest over the weekend, spreading areas of showers and thunderstorms. A front moving through early this week should bring more but sweep the showers out as well. Another front moves through mid to late week with more potential showers and thunderstorms. Both fronts are focal points for severe weather as temperatures rise and create stress where showers don't occur. Models have upped the potential for milder air moving in next week that could limit that stress though.

TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Pockets of showers and thunderstorms developed in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend while temperatures continued to rise in most areas. Those that did not see rainfall saw increased stress. With a couple of fronts moving through this week, some showers will be possible, but coverage is likely to be quite low. Despite the fronts, temperatures should continue to be hot and stressful, with triple-digit readings reducing soil moisture and crop health.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed in the Northern Plains over the weekend as a front settled into the Dakotas. The front moved east on Sunday, but another front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and could produce more showers. Another front drops into the region over the weekend and will be pushed through the region early next week. Temperatures will be above normal this week, creating stress for those who do not see much rainfall. Cooler conditions develop at least briefly behind the front moving through next week, though western areas may continue to be warm.

LARGELY DRIER IN THE DELTA

An upper-level low brought scattered showers to the Delta over the weekend but moved out Sunday. Fronts moving through the Corn Belt are unlikely to keep the showers going for much of the region this week. Instead, temperatures should be high and stressful where soil moisture runs out quicker. That may take a while as most areas have good soil moisture for now.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers fell over far northern areas of the Canadian Prairies, but most areas stayed dry over the weekend. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but the coverage of precipitation is forecast to be low. After some mild days this weekend, temperatures will be increasing again, though potential for extreme heat is low with the fronts passing through. Milder air may move in next week, especially across the east.

DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA

It was largely dry in Argentina over the weekend despite a front moving through. Some northeastern areas saw a little rain but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. The dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat in the short term and for the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Another front moves through late this week and weekend but forecast rainfall has fallen from last week.

BURST OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system brought heavy rain to portions of France and Germany again this weekend, unfavorable for wet areas. That system moved into eastern Europe on Sunday but showers only occurred across the north. Southeastern areas continue to deal with heat and dryness concerns for small grains and cotton. Spain and Italy have also been unfavorably dry for their summer crop prospects. A small disturbance will move through central Europe this week very slowly, getting some rain into needed areas but also more rain into France and Germany that do not need it.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA DROUGHT

The Black Sea region was dry over the weekend as a system went through the Black Sea but didn't bring any showers north. Another system moving into northern areas on Sunday will slowly press through the region this week. Areas of isolated or widely scattered showers are forecast through Wednesday. A disturbance moving through Europe will bring some additional showers this weekend into early next week as well. Rain may occur for some lucky areas, but will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures are also forecast to return to the hot conditions that have caused drought and stress over the last several weeks.

SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN, SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA

Northeastern Australia received some rain over the weekend, but northeastern New South Wales was the only area to see anything substantial. Soil moisture in much of Queensland has been falling and rain is needed here. A couple of fronts will go through western areas with scattered showers early this week. One of these fronts will bring showers to southern areas later this week, but will leave much of the eastern wheat belt dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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