DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in central Canada. A trough in western Canada will push the ridge through Canada eastward through the weekend. A cutoff upper-level low is being left behind in the Southern Plains, but will move eastward Sunday and Monday. Another ridge will build back up early next week in the Rockies and looks to be a consistent feature there and the Plains in early August, occasionally building farther northward into Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Disturbances are likely to move across the northern edge of the ridge from the Canadian Prairies through the East and should lead to rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather across the northern tier of the U.S. into Canada going through early August as well.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

Showers are likely to continue in the Southeast next week. A cold front will move through the Corn Belt mid-late next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather. Temperatures should be hot for most areas next week, though the Gulf Coast could be near normal. Heat stress to drier areas, especially the western Corn Belt and Plains, are likely.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...120 AT PALM SPRINGS, CA, NEEDLES, CA, STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA, AND TOPOCK, AZ

LOW THU...32 AT BIG BAY, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...GREENSBORO, NC 2.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in central Canada. A trough in western Canada will push the ridge through Canada eastward through the weekend. A cutoff upper-level low is being left behind in the Southern Plains, but will move eastward Sunday and Monday. Another ridge will build back up early next week in the Rockies and looks to be a consistent feature there and the Plains in early August, occasionally building farther northward into Canada. Disturbances are likely to move across the northern edge of the ridge from the Canadian Prairies through the East and should lead to rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather across the northern tier of the U.S. into Canada going through early August as well.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend.

Showers are likely to continue in the Southeast next week. A cold front will move through the Corn Belt mid-late next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather. Temperatures should be hot for most areas next week, though the Gulf Coast could be near normal. Heat stress to drier areas, especially the western Corn Belt and Plains, are likely.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat from the last couple of days is getting knocked down by a cold front moving into the region on Friday.

Temperatures behind the front will still be above normal, however. The front will be slow to move out until Sunday and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another front could produce some showers mid next week with another late next week and weekend. Though fronts are coming through, temperatures are still forecast to be above normal next week while shower coverage is low. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but they could use some more rain to go along with it.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions have become drier and temperatures are rising. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide scattered showers, though models are focusing efforts to the north and east. Another mostly dry front will move through mid-late next week.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb and are forecast to be consistently hot next week. The situation was fairly positive for most areas of the region, but the turn to hotter and drier could start to have an impact on reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low will bring showers this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Another front moves through a few days later with potential for more mid-late next week. Models are producing scattered showers and potential for severe weather with both fronts, but showers are widely scattered and some areas are bound to be missed. Temperatures will be rising through the weekend and be hot next week despite the fronts moving through. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but the pockets of the region missed by the incoming rain could lead to dryness concerns for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, especially with hot temperatures.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers will continue to move through as an upper-level low slowly moves through this weekend. With the flow shifting to the south this weekend and fronts moving across the north next week, showers may continue but will probably be limited. Most areas have seen and will see good rain, though some areas may have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An upper-level ridge is finally getting pushed eastward as a trough slowly moves into the region, bringing heavier rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east through the weekend. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend but the region will be on the edge of the ridge next week, which could lead to building heat again, but also the potential for more periods of showers. Models do not have much in the forecast, however.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT): Recent drier weather should help to get more of the winter wheat crop planted, but the extremes of heavy rain followed by weeks of dry weather have not been favorable for the crop. Some showers will move in with a front this weekend, but are forecast to be light.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Most winter wheat areas are unfavorably dry, even after some rain fell in a few spots this week. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Northern areas will see another front move through this weekend with another chance for limited showers, but the dry spell continues until possibly late next week, when models are more keen to bringing widespread showers through with another front.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system brought widespread showers to Europe this week, unfavorable to those in France and Germany where it is too wet, but relief to eastern areas that have been too dry. The southeast has been dealing with frequent hot and dry conditions but some rain and a brief reprieve from the heat was welcome. Another front moves into western areas Friday through this weekend with more unneeded showers for France and Germany. A couple of disturbances next week could bring more showers through. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could negatively affect crops there. Temperatures are more moderate but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Hot and dry conditions continue to plague the eastern half of Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia where drought is widespread and affecting corn and soybean development. A system brought showers to western areas, but is drying out as it moves into the Black Sea. Another system moving in early next week may have some staying power in the region, sitting overhead with scattered showers throughout most of the week and could be a boon to some local areas. But this will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures remain near to above normal until that system moves in, and will still be near normal with it overhead.

Cooler and wetter weather is needed quickly, but damage is being done to both corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Northeastern areas could use more rain, but conditions are not critical yet. A front is moving through eastern areas and will bring showers into Queensland through the weekend where they are needed, but could be too isolated to hit all locations with needed rain. More fronts are lining to move through next week, but are favoring western and far southern areas with rain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers southwest. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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