Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hotter forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

A front moving through the Midwest will produce limited showers Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Though somewhat active, most areas have seen light or no rain this week while only small areas have seen moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Another front moves through a few days later with potential for more mid- to late-next week. Models are producing scattered showers and potential for severe weather with both fronts, but showers are widely scattered and some areas are bound to be missed. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but the pockets of the region missed by the incoming rain could lead to dryness concerns for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, especially with temperatures increasing next week.

DRIER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Central and Southern Plains over the last week, hitting some areas with moderate to heavy rain and completely missing others. But conditions are becoming drier. Some isolated showers are possible the rest of the week, but nothing organized is forecast. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide more consistent showers to northern areas, though models are focusing efforts to the north and east. Temperatures are increasing and will be hot next week. The situation is fairly positive for most areas of the region currently, but the turn to hotter and drier could start to have an impact on reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat in Montana is spreading eastward this week, although it will become less intense as the week wears on. A cold front will move into the region on Friday and be slow to move out until early next week. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy or widespread. Another front could produce some showers mid next week with another late next week. Though fronts are coming through, temperatures are still forecast to be above normal next week while shower potential is low. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but they could use some more rain to go along with it.

RAIN CONTINUES IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers will continue to move through the Delta as an upper-level low slowly moves through this weekend. With the flow shifting to the south this weekend and fronts moving across the north next week, showers may continue but will probably be limited. Most areas have and will see good rain, though southern areas might have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms over the next few days.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the Canadian Prairies and brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. The ridge will get pushed eastward later this week as a trough moves into British Columbia, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east through the weekend. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend but the region will be on the edge of the ridge next week, which could lead to building heat again, but also the potential for more periods of showers. Models do not have much in the forecast, however.

FEW SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Most winter wheat areas in Argentina are unfavorably dry, even after some rain fell in a few spots this week. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Northern areas will see another front move through this weekend with another chance for limited showers, but the dry spell continues.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system continues through eastern Europe Wednesday, bringing needed showers to that area. The southeast has been dealing with frequent hot and dry conditions but some rain and a reprieve from the heat is welcome. Another front moves into western areas Friday through this weekend with more unneeded showers for France and Germany, which are too wet in many areas. A couple of disturbances next week could bring more showers through. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could negatively affect crops there as well. Temperatures are more moderate but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH DROUGHT

A system brought scattered light showers through the Black Sea region early this week, not enough to impact the drought for many areas. Another system moving through eastern Europe will catch western areas with showers the next couple of days. But as it moves through the Black Sea this weekend, will probably leave eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia unfavorably dry. Though not as consistently hot as the last few weeks, near to above normal temperatures will still be stressful for developing corn and sunflowers and damage is being done.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Northeastern Australia could use more rain but conditions are not critical yet. A front that brought rain to western areas earlier this week skirts through eastern areas over the next few days with showers. Showers may get into Queensland where they are more needed, but they look more isolated by that point. More fronts are lining to move through next week, but are favoring western and far southern areas with rain.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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