Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Mild temperatures and sporadic rain for the Corn Belt but a hotter extended forecast, and hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MILD TEMPERATURES INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

Isolated showers occurred in the Midwest over the weekend, but it was dry in a lot of areas. Mild temperatures in the region were overall positive. An upper-level low will be in the region producing areas of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday or Thursday, though most areas will see light or no rain while only small areas should see moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Most areas are in good shape, at the moment, but pockets of the region will be missed by the incoming rain and could lead to dryness concerns.

MILD IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, hitting some areas with moderate to heavy rain and completely missing others. The upper-level low pressure system responsible will continue showers through Tuesday before moving east. Even with it gone, isolated showers may still form later this week. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide more. Temperatures have been mild this weekend and continue most of this week, gradually moderating closer to or above normal by the weekend. The situation is fairly positive for most areas of the region, though there are some areas being missed by the rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASING HEAT

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend, heavy in some spots but absent in others. Isolated showers continue through Tuesday. Montana was hot and the heat will spread eastward this week, though will become less intense as the week wears on. A cold front will move into the region Friday and be slow to move out until early next week. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible, for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans in some areas as well. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development but could use some more rain in some cases as well.

RAIN CONTINUES IN THE DELTA

A front that settled across the southern Delta this weekend brought areas of heavy rainfall. The front should continue that for most of this week. Northern areas will see pockets of showers move through this week also as an upper-level low slowly moves through. Models are mixed on if showers will continue over the weekend into next week or wait for another front to move through. Either way, most areas will see good rain, though southern areas might have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the Canadian Prairies and brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. Disturbances have tried to bring showers through, but with limited success, including over the weekend. The ridge will get pushed eastward later this week as a trough moves into British Columbia, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend with the trough moving in, but the ridge is forecast to redevelop for the last few days of July into August and may cause more heat stress.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Limited showers fell in a few spots in Argentina over the weekend, but most winter wheat areas were unfavorably dry. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Some showers will move through southern areas with a front Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern areas will likely have to wait for another front this coming weekend into next week for another chance.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to France and Germany over the weekend, unfavorable for winter wheat quality and harvest as well as being too wet for developing corn. The system will continue through eastern areas of Europe over the next few days where showers will be much more welcome, especially in the southeast. Another system will follow this one across the continent with more showers through Wednesday as well. Yet another front moves into western areas this weekend with more unneeded showers. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could affect crops there as well. Temperatures will be more moderate this week but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

CONTINUED HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Mostly dry conditions occurred in the Black Sea region over the weekend while temperatures continued to be hot and stressful, a common occurrence for the region this season. A system will bring scattered showers through early this week but will probably be light. Another system moves through the Black Sea this weekend and may catch western and southern areas with showers, but the widespread moderate to heavy rain that the region needs remains elusive.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend, being heavy in some spots which likely increased soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Northeastern areas could use more rain, but conditions are not critical yet. A front gets into western areas for Monday and Tuesday and skirts through eastern areas later this week. Showers may get into Queensland where they are needed more, but they look more isolated by that point. Several more fronts are lining up to move through next week but are favoring southern areas with rain.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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