Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler temperatures with sporadic rain for the Corn Belt, hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MILD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MIDWEST

Mild temperatures will persist across the Midwest well into next week. An upper-level low settling off to the west this weekend through next week will bring varying coverage and intensity of showers into the region, taking until early next week to get into the east. The variable rainfall may be good for some of the wet areas to continue to dry out while some of the drier areas may want more rain than forecast.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains with an upper-level low that will move in and park itself in the region this weekend, offering widespread showers and thunderstorms through the front half of next week. Temperatures are mild and will persist through next week underneath the trough, a good combination for crop development.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A trough moving into the Northern Plains on Friday will settle to the south for the weekend into next week. Occasional showers will be possible into early next week, but amounts are likely to be below normal for most areas. Montana will stay warm to hot, though eastern areas will be milder underneath the trough. Temperatures are forecast to rise later next week with heat for the end of July, which is somewhat needed with crop development still behind from late planting. The combination of heat and lack of moisture should be stressful for some of the crops, however.

DELTA MAY SEE SOME FLOODING

A front will continue to create showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend as it settles across the southern Delta and an upper-level low will move off to the west and continue chances through next week. Though showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast, coverage and intensity will be variable with heavier rain more likely across the south. Milder temperatures are settling in behind the front and should continue through next week underneath the trough. Overall, this should be a good setup for developing crops, but we could also see some flooding where heavier rain sets up.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent heat in the Canadian Prairies caused more rapid growth of crops over the last week and the heat generally continues through next week. Some isolated showers will move through over the next week, but overall dryness continues, a concern for some areas that need the rain, especially in the southwest. The combination of heat and dryness is not favorable for most developing crops.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

More soil moisture is needed for the vegetative wheat crop in Argentina. Rainfall chances increase with a front moving into northern areas Friday into the weekend with more for southern areas possible next week, but rain looks only regionally moderate and mostly light or even absent for some wheat areas. Temperatures are more seasonable or even warm despite the front.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEKEND

A system will move through Europe this weekend into early next week with unfavorable showers for the northwest, but with needed showers for the southeast that has been very hot and dry this season. Showers will be sporadic behind the system for next week, but many areas will remain dry while temperatures become more seasonable.

CONTINUED HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A front that has been working through the Black Sea region over the last couple of days has not brought much precipitation or cooler temperatures. But some isolated showers are still possible Friday for eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Hot and dry conditions there have created tough growing conditions for corn and sunflowers. Chances may improve somewhat next week as a couple of systems will move through, but the forecast is not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed. Wheat harvest should continue to increase.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A front continues to sweep across southeastern Australia going into the weekend, providing widespread showers. Drier areas in the northeast could use some more rain, but conditions are not critical yet for vegetative wheat and canola. Another front is forecast to move through the country with scattered showers next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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