Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cooler and drier forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt, hotter and drier conditions for the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, and poor conditions for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRIER AND MILDER IN THE MIDWEST

A front carried showers and thunderstorms through the Midwest this week, but it will be dry behind it for a few days and temperatures are much more mild. An upper-level low settling off to the west this weekend through next week may or may not bring showers into the region through next week. Models are mixed on the coverage and intensity but bring some rainfall through. Some areas in the southeast that are still struggling with soil moisture and drought may not get much rain while other areas that are wet in the northwest are going to see some favorable dryness.

MILD AND SHOWERY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains with a front sagging south the next couple of days. That is followed by an upper-level low that will move in and park itself in the region this weekend, offering widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least the front half of next week, especially south. Temperatures are becoming mild behind the front and will persist through next week underneath the trough, a good combination for crop development.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A trough will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and settle to the south for the weekend into next week. Occasional showers will be possible, but amounts are likely to be below normal. Montana may stay warm to hot though eastern areas will be milder underneath the trough. Temperatures are forecast to rise later next week with heat for the end of July, which is somewhat needed with crop development still behind from late planting. The combination of heat and lack of moisture should be stressful for some of the crop, however.

MIXED RAIN FOR DELTA

A front sagging south through the Delta will continue to create showers and thunderstorms going into the weekend as it settles across the south and an upper-level low will move off to the west and continue chances through next week. Though showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast, coverage and intensity may be limited in some areas. Milder temperatures are settling in behind the front and should continue through next week underneath the trough. Overall, this should be a good setup for developing crops, but we could also see some flooding.

HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent heat caused more rapid growth of crops in the Canadian Prairies over the last week and the heat generally continues through next week. Some isolated showers will move through over the next week, but the dryness continues, a concern for some areas that need the rain, especially in the southwest. The combination of heat and dryness is not favorable for most developing crops.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER IN BRAZIL

After a run of heavier rainfall, drier conditions over Brazil persist into next week, favorable for the remaining corn harvest. Wheat planting is behind schedule from the wet conditions of the last couple of months, especially in Rio Grande do Sul in the far south. The drier weather should help in that regard.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Frosts and mostly dry conditions have been unfavorable for vegetative wheat in Argentina over the last week. More soil moisture is needed for the crop. Rainfall chances increase with a front moving into northern areas on Friday into the weekend with more for southern areas possible next week. Temperatures are more seasonable or even warm despite the front.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEKEND

It is drier in western Europe through the rest of the week, which is favorable for harvest. A system will move through the continent this weekend into early next week with unfavorable showers for the northwest, but with needed showers for the southeast that has been very hot and dry this season. Showers will be sporadic behind the system for next week, but many areas will remain dry while temperatures become more seasonable.

CONTINUED HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A front will bring sporadic showers through the Black Sea region through Friday, but mostly to western areas that have had much better success finding some rain. Eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia continue to deal with hot and largely dry conditions which have been unfavorable for corn and sunflowers. Chances may improve somewhat next week as a couple of systems will move through, but the forecast is not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed. Wheat harvest should continue to increase.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A front brought widespread rain to Western Australia Wednesday and will sweep across the southeast going into the weekend, providing widespread showers. Drier areas in the northeast could use some more rain, but conditions are not critical yet for vegetative wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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