Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Severe storms hit parts of the Corn Belt on Monday. Rain chances return to Argentina later this week with conditions drying out in southern Brazil. Drier conditions return to northwest Europe throughout the week with a few showers possible in southeast Europe. These are the weather factors driving the markets for Tuesday.

RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MIDWEST TUESDAY

Strong to severe storms led to spotty crop damage over the weekend but more widespread severe storms impacted the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers and storms remain likely Tuesday with conditions trending drier for most by Thursday as a cold front sags south, and high pressure returns. Cooler temperatures will arrive by the middle of this week and expand across much of the region by Friday. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for developing crops, but southeastern areas could use more rainfall and severe storms are creating swaths of crop damage.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL OFFER RELIEF FROM HEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some areas across Kansas and Oklahoma could use more moisture, which may arrive mid-week. As a cold front shifts south later in the week, isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the Southern Plains and temperatures are expected to cool down behind the front. Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week and will persist through the weekend. Scattered showers and storms will persist for these regions this weekend which could reduce the drought across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Texas.

COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few areas across the Dakotas received damage from strong to severe storms this past weekend. Scattered showers and storms remain possible early this week with drier conditions returning later in the week. Temperatures will trend cooler this week and scattered rain showers may return for the weekend. Conditions are fair for crops, but severe storms have not been favorable as corn starts to silk and soybeans start setting pods.

SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DELTA THIS WEEK

An active pattern is likely for this week with showers favoring northern areas early in the week before showers shift south during the second half of the week. The active pattern could lead to some fields of soybeans being too wet as beans continue to set pods. Temperatures are favored to be above normal early this week with a cool down by Thursday or Friday. Cooler temperatures could last through early next week as well.

DROUGHT COULD EXPAND IN WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer conditions last week and scattered showers and storms this past weekend were favorable for developing wheat and canola. Showers this week will be much more isolated with some areas likely remaining mostly dry. Temperatures are also expected to be above normal for western areas this week, which could lead to drought expanding if they missed showers this past weekend.

CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL THIS WEEK

With areas in southern Brazil recovering from recent heavy rainfall last week, winter wheat planting and development are behind. Drier conditions will return across southern Brazil through the rest of this week and possibly into this weekend. Central Brazil has been making steady progress on safrinha corn harvest and this will likely continue this week with mild and dry conditions. Southern Brazil will likely make more progress on safrinha corn harvest this week as compared to the last few weeks.

RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK ACROSS ARGENTINA

Frosts and mostly dry conditions were unfavorable for developing wheat last week. More soil moisture is needed for the developing crop. Rainfall chances won't increase until late this week or this weekend with remnants of a cold front moving across northern Argentina. There is still some uncertainty on how widespread the showers will be late in the week. Temperatures will become more seasonable this week after the well below normal temperatures last week.

DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORTHWEST EUROPE

Northwest Europe has been dealing with wet conditions, making it difficult for wheat harvest. Conditions will trend drier through the rest of the week for northwest areas, which is favorable for harvest. A few showers are expected to impact southeast areas during the middle to end of the week and temperatures will remain above normal. Precipitation remains below normal in the southeast and above normal temperatures may cause drought to expand for some if they miss showers this week.

SHOWERS FAVOR WESTERN BLACK SEA BY MID-WEEK

Rainfall largely remained north of the region last week and temperatures were well above normal, leaving more opportunities for drought to expand. Towards the middle of this week, a cold front could provide some scattered showers to western areas. Precipitation may largely miss southern and northeast areas and temperatures are expected to be above normal. Dry conditions are favorable for wheat harvest but unfavorable for maturing corn.

COOL TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through last week, benefiting maturing wheat. Cooler temperatures will linger in eastern areas through the mid-week and low temperatures could approach freezing, lending to a risk for frost in parts of New South Wales. Another front will move into Western Australia by the middle of the week and provide widespread showers. The front will eventually swing through southern Australia towards the end of the week. Overall, crops and soil moisture are in fair condition, but the periodic showers will need to be maintained for maturing small grain.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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