Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible throughout parts of the Central Mississippi Valley and Eastern Midwest today as remnants of Hurricane Beryl move northeast. Risks of frost in Argentina, flooding in southern Brazil, and hot and dry conditions in the Black Sea are also weather factors driving the markets for Tuesday.

DROUGHT RELIEF FOR EASTERN MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Eastern areas of the Midwest will begin to see impacts from remnants of Tropical Depression Beryl today which could provide severe storms and heavy rainfall. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. Cooler air will persist through much of this week before temperatures increase by the weekend. Western areas will see some more appreciable breaks in rainfall later this week but systems from southern Canada could provide some scattered showers to the area this weekend into early next week.

BERYL EXITS SOUTHEAST PLAINS, PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR EAST TEXAS

Remnants of Beryl provided heavy rain to eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma on Monday. Isolated showers and below-normal temperatures will linger in the Southern Plains through the rest of this week as the trough across the Central U.S. slowly weakens. Conditions trend warmer by this weekend, but showers and storms may still linger, especially across southern Texas.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Eastern areas will continue to see daily chances for showers through the middle of the week with showers waning later in the week with the return of high pressure. Through the weekend, a few systems from Canada may impact North Dakota. Temperatures will be near or below normal through the middle of the week with warmer temperatures returning later in the week and persisting through early next week.

REMNANTS OF BERYL EXIT CENTRAL DELTA TODAY

A relief from the recent heat came this weekend with a trough in the Central U.S. providing cooler temperatures. Tropical Depression Beryl will move through central areas today, providing heavy rainfall which could exacerbate flooding for areas along the Mississippi. Some areas could end up being too wet by the middle of this week. Temperatures will be seasonable this week with warmth building across northern areas by early next week.

HEAT DEVELOPING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers persist in eastern areas through the first half of the week with mostly dry conditions in western areas. Above to well above normal temperatures in western areas will expand east throughout the week with warm conditions likely persisting into early next week. A few rounds of rain may develop this weekend as a trough passes through the region. The drier and warmer combination is a good one for many areas that have adequate to surplus soil moisture and slower crop development.

HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL THREATENS WHEAT

A front will linger across the south this week. Areas of heavy rain are forecast, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind, and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest continues in earnest across the country and is well ahead of schedule. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. Colder air moving in behind the front may cause some frosts, but that is not expected to cause any damage.

RISK OF FROST IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture across the country continues to be low for winter wheat establishment. High pressure will keep conditions dry throughout this week and possibly into early next week. Cold temperatures will continue through this week with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat.

STORM TRACK FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN EUROPE

Pockets of heavy rain recently moved through France and Germany where it was not welcome but have also spread to other areas of Europe where it was. Several more systems and fronts will move through the continent this week, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

BLACK SEA STILL DEALING WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS

Isolated showers will continue across the Black Sea region this week, but the main storm track will stay north of the region. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Hot temperatures this week will only exacerbate the stress on developing summer crops.

CONSISTENT SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Most areas are in good shape for vegetative winter wheat and canola. Eastern areas saw beneficial rains this past weekend which will linger into today. The next front moves into the west today and spreads eastward with more showers reaching the southeast by late this week. Overall, things are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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