Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A somewhat cooler and drier forecast for the Central U.S. next week, but the potential remnants of Hurricane Beryl moving through, and poor conditions for northwestern Europe and the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A front brought needed rainfall to the Ohio Valley the last couple of days but did bring some unwanted flooding around southern Missouri and Illinois. A system moving through the region Friday will spread more showers through the Midwest. Behind it, another system slowly moves through this weekend into early next week with more showers. The southern end of the region may have to watch for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl that may bring some heavy rain if it moves that far north. The rain may be wanted for some areas that have had drought conditions lately. Cooler air will move in behind next week's system, at least for a few days before they increase again later next week and weekend. Outside of Beryl and the early week front, it should be much drier though some isolated showers are likely to pop up in the cooler air.

COOL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BERYL MOVING THROUGH TEXAS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved through the Central and Southern Plains all week long, with good amounts for a lot of the territory outside of Texas. The region stays active with showers into next week. Hurricane Beryl is forecast to move through Texas early next week with a swath of intense rainfall. Behind it, some isolated showers may still develop underneath an upper-level low that should keep temperatures mild to cool for this time of year.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the last couple of days and continue into early next week. Southeastern South Dakota, which had massive flooding in June has so far escaped the heavy rain, but other areas have seen it instead. Showers should wane with intensity next week before getting much drier. Temperatures will be near or below normal into next week, keeping growth slow, but should rise later next week and weekend.

SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE DELTA, BERYL LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK

It has been very hot in the Delta the last few days, but the region will get some relief this weekend with a front dropping south. That front should also bring some needed rainfall as it largely stalls out into next week. To complicate things, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl will move through and bring even more heavy rainfall. Some areas that are too dry could end up being too wet by the middle of next week. Temperatures will be much more seasonable through next week.

MILD WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers have been the norm in the Canadian Prairies this week, being light in some areas and heavy in others. Scattered showers continue through about Monday before the region gets much drier for next week. Cooler temperatures will moderate, and a stretch of above-normal temperatures is forecast by the middle of next week. The drier and warmer combination is a good one for many areas that have adequate to surplus soil moisture and slower crop development.

SLOW-MOVING FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front is moving into southern Brazil on Friday and will be slow to move northward next week. Areas of heavy rain are forecast, which are not needed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul that is still recovering from flooding. Winter wheat planting and development are behind, and this will not help. Safrinha corn harvest continues in earnest across the country and is well ahead of schedule. Rain coming to southern areas will slow down what remains. Colder air moving in behind the front may cause some frosts, but that is not expected to cause any damage.

COLD AND DRY IN ARGENTINA

A front that moved through Argentina this week has been a dry one and soil moisture across the country continues to be low for winter wheat establishment. Cold temperatures moving in behind the front are forecast to continue through next week with widespread frosts also being unfavorable for wheat. Hard freezes that would cause damage are unlikely to be widespread though.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Pockets of heavy rain recently moved through France and Germany where it was not welcome but have also spread to other areas of Europe where it was. Several more systems and fronts will move through the continent through next week, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere outside of the southeast. The southeast is much hotter and drier and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

LIMITED SHOWERS, CONTINUED HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

A front brought decent rainfall to western Ukraine over the last couple of days, but showers will become isolated over the weekend as it moves eastward. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Hot temperatures this week and next will only exacerbate the stress on developing summer crops.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Most areas of Australia are in good shape for vegetative winter wheat and canola. A system will develop some showers across the east this weekend while the next front gets into the west early next week and spreads eastward with more. Overall, things are in fair condition but could use more consistent rain in the months ahead.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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