Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding and additional rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, needed showers through the rest of the Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., and poor conditions for northwestern Europe and the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

A system moved through the Midwest over the weekend with scattered, but inconsistent rainfall. Some areas that were expecting some rain were left dry. Flooded areas in the northwest got a needed break from the rain, but several more fronts and systems moving through the region over the next two weeks should bring plenty of opportunities for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Models are favoring the western half of the region with the heaviest amounts, which include those flooded areas. Eastern areas are still forecast to see chances for needed rainfall through next week, but not as much as farther west. Eastern areas are also forecast to be hotter more frequently than those in the west, which may cause some issues if the rain does not materialize.

MANY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, but heavy rain, moved through much of Kansas and parts of Nebraska and northern Oklahoma over the weekend, favorable for developing corn and soybeans, but not the wheat harvest. Drought areas have been receiving a little more consistent rainfall lately, which should help those areas. But some across the south have seen less recently, where drought may start to develop soon. An active pattern over the next two weeks will favor multiple fronts stalling in the region, bringing bursts of cooler air behind them and plenty of rain, which should be favorable for developing crops in most areas. Southern areas may catch some rains at times as well. They'll be hot though as fronts largely stall around Kansas or Oklahoma.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend but mostly across the northwest, letting wet areas in the southeast catch a break. A stronger system will bring more scattered showers through Monday and impulses will cross the region every couple of days going through early next week. The frequent passage of storm systems could bring heavier rain through areas in the southeast that don't need it. Temperatures will be near or below normal for the next two weeks, keeping growth slow.

LIMITED SHOWERS WITH HEAT IN THE DELTA

Isolated to scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend but temperatures increased, causing stress for areas that did not see much rainfall. Fronts will largely stay off to the north this week while temperatures remain mostly above normal. There is a better chance for a shower-producing front moving through this weekend into early next week, which may stall out for a few days as well. That would certainly be beneficial if it occurs.

COOL AND WET IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but many areas remained dry. Cold air moved in, and some spotty frosts may have been possible on Saturday morning. Cooler than normal temperatures will stick around the region for the next week or longer, but there is not significant chance for frost. Instead, multiple systems will move through, spreading showers throughout the region. Showers are more likely to be scattered with limited chances for heavy rain. But areas that may get hit multiple times could see some flooding. That would be exacerbated in areas across the north and east that have had issues with heavy rain in recent weeks.

RAIN MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Cold air moved into southern Brazil behind a front this weekend, causing frosts. Despite the cold, there was not a likely effect on either winter wheat planting or maturing safrinha corn. A front will move into the south late this week and may stall in some areas going into next week. If it sticks around the same areas, flooding may be possible, which would not be good for crops or transportation, which has had flooding issues over the last two months.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS DRY ARGENTINA

Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment in most of Argentina. A front brought a burst of colder temperatures this weekend that produced frosts across a wide area. While it will not damage emerging to vegetative winter wheat, it was not helpful. Another front moves through later this week, but showers are forecast to develop over the far north for only a couple of days while the primary wheat areas remain dry and get another burst of cold air.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Over the weekend, pockets of heavy rain moved through France and Germany where it was not welcome, but also in adjacent areas from Spain to Poland, where it was. The system responsible will continue through much of Europe the next couple of days, but several more systems and fronts will move through this week and next, bringing unwanted rain to wet areas in France and Germany, but beneficial showers elsewhere. The southeast will be much drier after a system moves through early this week. This area has been much hotter recently and has had issues with wildfires and drought as well. The pattern is not favorable for turning this around.

LIMITED SHOWERS, BUILDING HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

It was unfavorably dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend while temperatures increased. A couple of fronts will move into western Ukraine this week with widespread showers there, but the prospect for showers farther east is poor until the weekend, when some isolated showers may be possible. Dryness and drought continue to expand in most areas and even those that have seen rain recently still have large rainfall deficits this season. Hot temperatures this week will only exacerbate the stress on developing summer crops.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system brought needed rainfall to eastern Australia over the weekend. Despite drier conditions for most of this week, most areas are in good shape for vegetative winter wheat. A system may develop some showers across the east this weekend while the next front gets into the west early next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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