Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Flooding and additional rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, needed showers through the rest of the Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., and poor conditions for northwestern Europe and the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE RAIN FALLING IN THE MIDWEST

Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin and parts of Missouri from rainfall over the last week. More rain fell in these areas on Thursday, which continues Friday as a system pushes across the region through the weekend. Another front will move through early-to-mid next week and may stall out across the south for a couple of days, with one more system going through late next week and weekend. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that had developed in the south and east but hurt those that are too wet in the northwest.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Another front will move through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend with scattered showers and some cooler air, especially north. Another system does something similar early-to-mid next week, followed by one more late next week. The active storm track is favoring northern areas with better chances for widespread rain. Heat will occur south of the fronts coming through and be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota and any new rain will make it worse. Unfortunately, a front that moved into the Northern Plains on Thursday brought some heavy rain and more showers continue for Friday. Another front moves through early next week with more scattered showers. And one more may come through at the end of next week. Temperatures will turn much colder this weekend with a slight risk of frost in some areas where skies clear and winds are calm. Though temperatures will moderate next week, they will still be cooler than normal, and another shot of colder air may move through later next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Hot temperatures in the Delta got a slight break with a front that moved through the last two days but will increase again over the weekend. Though some rain fell with that front on Wednesday, dryness continues to creep into the region. Models are forecasting two fronts to drift into the region next week, but not with heavy precipitation, which may cause stress with the higher temperatures.

COLD AIR IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND

A large storm that moved into the Canadian Prairies on Thursday brought a band of heavy rain across much of Alberta and northern Saskatchewan, with scattered showers elsewhere so far. More rain continues east for Friday. Cold air will flow into the region over the weekend and limited frosts will be possible, though the risk is still low. Another storm system will move through early next week but with scattered showers with another late next week with another burst of cooler air. The cooler temperatures are not helpful for crop development that is behind due to wetness and previous cold air.

LIMITED RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some rain got into southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas with a front this week, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will move in Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an effect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS DRY ARGENTINA

Rainfall deficits continue to build up in Argentina and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. A front is dry as it moves north through the country but is bringing a burst of colder temperatures that will produce frosts for a couple of days. Another likely does the same later next week. The lack of good rainfall remains a concern for wheat.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system in the Mediterranean will continue showers for Italy and the southeast for Friday, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent this weekend and next week. France and Germany had gotten a needed break from the rain but will find some pockets of heavy rain moving through again this weekend, unfavorable for areas that remain wet. Most areas should see lighter rainfall amounts, though.

LIMITED SHOWERS, BUILDING HEAT FOR BLACK SEA

Limited showers have moved through the Black Sea region this week, but rainfall deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Drier conditions are likely next week, though far western areas could see some rain with fronts stalling out briefly in the region. Temperatures will be on the increase over the next few days, getting into western Russia next week. The heat should cause some additional stress to developing corn and sunflowers.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system moved through western Australia with some good rain earlier this week and will go through eastern areas through the weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment in most areas. It may be drier next week, though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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