Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy, flooding rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, needed showers through the rest of the Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin. Storms that developed Monday night made that worse in Wisconsin. Several more storm systems will move through the region going into next week, providing some better shower chances for those in the south and east that have been very hot and dry for the last week or two. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that are developing in some areas. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast. Northwestern areas would like to see a break and dry conditions but will not find it.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will remain hot in the Central and Southern Plains for the next few days, especially south. A front will move through with chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and another will move through Thursday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. The active storm track is favoring northern and western areas with rain while southeastern areas are getting drier after flooding rains in May and early June. The heat will be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota. A system is still producing showers in South Dakota on Tuesday and another will bring scattered showers through the region later this week and weekend. Another moves through early next week, keeping the region active. Temperatures will waffle around as systems come and go but much colder temperatures are forecast for the weekend. There is a slight risk of frost in some areas.

HOT IN THE DELTA

It was quiet in the Delta over the weekend with increasing heat. A front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast and a slight drop in temperatures. But the break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again to end the week. Models are forecasting occasional fronts to drift into the region going into July, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

RAIN CONTINUES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and multiple systems that will move through over the next couple of weeks will continue that trend. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather will be possible with each system that passes through. Overall, good soil moisture is likely to be maintained, though eastern areas could still use some drier conditions as soggy soils are more widespread there. Temperatures will be variable, but trend cooler late this week and weekend. Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread.

SOME RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend, but the forecast for heavy rain has diminished. Some rain will get into southern safrinha corn areas, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will move in Friday and Saturday with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to have an effect on either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

Isolated showers went through Argentina over the weekend but were light and spotty. Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. Some more isolated showers will go through this week and a front later this week will bring in a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days.

NORTHWESTERN EUROPE CATCHING SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK

A system has moved into the Mediterranean, where showers will continue for Italy and southeastern Europe for the next few days, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent later this week and weekend, but models have backed off on the heavy rainfall potential for France and Germany, which are getting a needed break from the rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A couple of fronts and systems will bring some limited showers through the Black Sea region this week and next, but rainfall deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Temperatures will not be overly hot but should trend more above normal by later this week, especially across Ukraine, where temperatures will be much higher.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system will move through western Australia midweek and through eastern areas late this week and weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment in most areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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