Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy, flooding rain in the northwestern Corn Belt, hot temperatures across the southern tier of the U.S., wet weather in parts of northwestern Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE NORTHWESTERN MIDWEST

Heavy rain continued across the northwestern Midwest over the weekend, causing flooding along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin. Flood damage is likely widespread in this area. Even those areas that did not receive heavy rain this weekend to the north of this zone have seen a lot of rain in recent weeks, which has caused ponding and flooding of its own. Several more storm systems will move through the region going into next week, providing some better shower chances for those in the east who have been very hot and dry for the last week or two. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that are developing there, but amounts are not forecast to be very heavy outside of the Upper Midwest, more like light to moderate rainfall. But if rain can continue with this sort of frequency, that could be beneficial even if lighter. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast, or at least not a terrible outlook for those in the east. Northwestern areas would like to see a break though.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain went through a patch of Nebraska over the weekend, but showers were spotty and most places stayed dry. Temperatures rose and will remain hot for the next few days, especially south. A front will move through with chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and another will move through Friday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. The active storm track is favoring northern and western areas with rain while southeastern areas are getting drier after flooding rains in May and early June. The heat will be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

HEAVY, FLOODING RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend and heavy rain flooded southeastern South Dakota. A couple of systems will bring scattered showers through the region this week, but heavy flooding rain is not in the forecast until a system goes through early next week. Heat has developed into the region but temperatures will waffle around as systems come and go. Much colder temperatures are forecast for the weekend.

HOT IN THE DELTA

It was quiet in the Delta over the weekend with increasing heat. A front will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast and some milder temperatures, a break the region needs. But the break from the heat is brief, with temperatures rising again to end the week. Models are forecasting occasional fronts to drift into the region going into July, but not with heavy precipitation, which may be stressful with the higher temperatures.

RAIN CONTINUES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and multiple systems that will move through over the next couple of weeks will continue that trend. Rainfall amounts do not look overly heavy for too many areas, though thunderstorms could produce some patchy areas of it. Overall, good soil moisture is likely to be maintained, though eastern areas could still use some drier conditions as soggy soils are more widespread there. Temperatures will be variable, but trend cooler late this week and weekend. Some limited frost will be possible, but unlikely to be widespread.

MORE RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend, but the forecast for heavy rain has diminished. Some rain will get into southern safrinha corn areas, but the lack of heavy rain will allow harvest to continue. Another front will go through Friday and Saturday with more scattered showers but also a burst of colder air. Though some frosts will be possible, it will be unlikely to affect either mature corn or germinating winter wheat. Heavy rain from last month and last week continue to limit wheat planting, however.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

Isolated showers went through Argentina over the weekend but were light and spotty. Rainfall deficits continue to build up and soil moisture is low for winter wheat establishment. Some more isolated showers will go through this week and a front later this week will bring in a burst of colder temperatures that will produce some frosts for a couple of days.

NORTHWESTERN EUROPE CATCHING SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK

A system brought scattered showers through most of Europe over the weekend. The system has moved into the Mediterranean, where showers will continue for Italy and the southeast for much of the week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent later this week and weekend, but models have backed off on the heavy rainfall potential for France and Germany, which need an extended break from the rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A few showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. A couple of fronts and systems will bring some limited showers through the region this week and next, but deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Temperatures will not be overly hot, but should trend more above normal by later this week.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Limited showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Another system will move through western areas midweek and through eastern areas late this week and weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.