DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the West, and another in the North Pacific. The western trough will finally move east over the weekend, and the Pacific one will follow behind it for early- to mid-next week, creating a temporary lull in the ridge.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will build back up in the West midweek and spread into the East late next week and weekend while another trough gets into western Canada. The ridge may be more expansive across the Central while troughs and disturbances go over the top of the ridge going into July. That is usually an active pattern for the northern U.S. and Canada and could bring some needed rain to the Eastern Corn Belt that has been lacking lately.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS continues to be cooler than the European. I will use a blend.

A system will move through Canada early next week and its front will sweep through the U.S. midweek with widespread showers and a round of cooler air behind it. Another system should do something similar late next week and weekend, though its cold front probably gets hung up in the middle of the country for the following week, bringing potential rainfall to the Eastern Corn Belt in some fashion or another. Temperatures are likely to increase next weekend south of that second front while it should be milder to the north.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...115 AT PHOENIX, AZ

LOW THU...15 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 2.98 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the West, and another in the North Pacific. The western trough will finally move east over the weekend, and the Pacific one will follow behind it for early- to mid-next week, creating a temporary lull in the ridge. But the ridge will build back up in the West midweek and spread back into the East late next week and weekend while another trough gets into western Canada. The ridge may be more expansive across the Central while troughs and disturbances go over the top of the ridge going into July. That is usually an active pattern for the northern U.S. and Canada and could bring some needed rain to the Eastern Corn Belt that has been lacking lately.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS continues to be cooler than the European. I will use a blend.

A system will move through Canada early next week and its front will sweep through the U.S. midweek with widespread showers and a round of cooler air behind it. Another system should do something similar late next week and weekend, though its cold front probably gets hung up in the middle of the country for the following week, bringing potential rainfall to the Eastern Corn Belt in some fashion or another. Temperatures are likely to increase next weekend south of that second front while it should be milder to the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has been producing scattered showers in the region all week, causing flooding in some areas, most recently across southeastern South Dakota. The front will be pushed eastward this weekend. A system will move through early next week but with limited showers. A larger storm system will likely move through late next week and weekend with more rain. Soggy soils and flooding are not favorable for crop development in some areas, but most have plenty of soil moisture for early growth.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has been producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms all week, including some areas of flooding in drought areas in the southwest. The front lifts northward Friday before returning into the region this weekend. The front will get stuck across the north, but it will be less active next week, with heat building south of it and continuing through most of next week. Another front moving through Wednesday and Thursday should bring a chance for widespread showers, and another system moving through late next week and weekend will do so as well. Favorable soil moisture in most areas will help crops deal with the heat, but that could start to run out over southern areas with the limited showers in the forecast.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front has been waffling around the northwestern corner of the region all week, where daily showers and thunderstorms have brought areas of heavy rain. South and east of the front, temperatures have been hot, causing a rapid decrease in soil moisture and stress in areas that were not overly saturated. Some pop-up showers have developed in the heat, but flash drought is becoming more of an issue across a wide expanse of the region. The front will finally get pushed eastward over the weekend, though models are not excited about a large reduction in temperatures or much in the way of widespread showers. Another system moving through during the middle of next week will produce more widespread precipitation, but should also bring a shot of milder temperatures through. Any mild temperatures should be brief as the heat could build back in going into July, especially across southeastern areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): With Gulf moisture now pushed westward, temperatures are on the increase going into the weekend. A front moves into the region early next week, but does not contain a reduction in temperatures or much in the way of precipitation. But another Wednesday and Thursday probably will. Any brief break in the heat will be short-lived with heat building going into July.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An active pattern has brought showers through the region this week, being heavier in the south and east. Farther west and north, temperatures have been cold enough in the mornings to produce some limited frosts. The region continues to be active with a system moving through Friday and Saturday, another early next week, and yet another late next week and weekend. Though showers are scattered and some areas are being missed, soil moisture continues to be very favorable in most areas. Manitoba continues to be a little too wet.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled and been very active across the state of Rio Grande do Sul over the last week, redeveloping floods after last month's historic flooding. The front gets pulled south this weekend, but then comes right back in and stalls again for next week, exacerbating the wet conditions there. Winter wheat planting continues to face challenges. Rain is forecast to largely stay south of the safrinha corn areas, allowing for harvest to continue progressing faster than normal. The far southern safrinha corn state of Parana may find some showers and more difficult harvest conditions, however.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers have moved through the country this week and more will move through over the next several days with another system. Dry conditions are still unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, though the region is getting some beneficial rain through Saturday. More showers may develop early and late next week and southern wheat areas are favored over the north. A burst of colder temperatures will move through this weekend into early next week, which may bring frosts to wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has produced more widespread showers across western and northern areas this week, being unfavorably wet across France and Germany for both maturing winter wheat and developing corn. This system finally pushes eastward this weekend, with part of it drifting into the Mediterranean, which may provide some needed rainfall for southeastern areas that have been very hot this week. After a brief but needed break, showers may move back into northwestern Europe in the middle of next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A few showers are moving through the region with a front passing through, and another may do so early next week, but precipitation has been awfully spotty across much of the region, especially some of the higher wheat production areas in southwestern Russia. It is too late for wheat, but developing corn and sunflowers are now having issues as recent heat has been forcing crops to develop fast with poor soil moisture.

Temperatures may be more moderate with the fronts moving through, but the lack of good rainfall is concerning.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front moving through this week has brought some limited showers through the country. A system may bring showers to western areas Friday, but will sit off the southern coast and not provide much to eastern areas this weekend or next week. Another system later next week shows more promise for widespread rain. Eastern areas, and especially Queensland, could use more rainfall for winter wheat and canola establishment, but most areas are in good shape for the moment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal south and above normal north Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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