Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the northwestern Corn Belt and hot and largely dry conditions for the southern and eastern U.S., wet weather in parts of northwestern Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HOT AND LARGELY DRY EASTERN MIDWEST

A front has been waffling around the northwestern corner of the Midwest all week, where daily showers and thunderstorms have brought some heavy rain. South and east of the front, temperatures have been hot, causing a rapid decrease in soil moisture and stress in areas that are not overly saturated. Some pop-up showers have developed in the heat, but flash drought is becoming more of an issue across a wide expanse of the region. The front will finally get pushed eastward over the weekend, though models are not excited about a large reduction in temperatures or much in the way of widespread showers. Another system moving through during the middle of next week will produce more widespread precipitation but should also bring a shot of milder temperatures through. Any mild temperatures should be brief as the heat could build back in going into July.

HEAT BUILDING WITH SOME SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front has been producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Central and Southern Plains all week, including some areas of flooding in drought areas in the southwest. The front lifts northward for the next couple of days before returning into the region this weekend. The front will get stuck across the north, but it will be less active next week, with heat building south of it and continuing through most of next week. That is despite another front moving through Wednesday and Thursday that should bring a chance for widespread showers, and another system moving through late next week and weekend with some as well. Favorable soil moisture in most areas will help crops deal with the heat, but that could start to run out over southern areas with the limited showers moving forward.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front has been producing scattered showers in the Northern Plains all week and continues until it is pushed eastward this weekend. Some areas of flooding have already occurred, and more may develop, especially in South Dakota. A system will move through early next week but with limited showers. A larger storm system will likely move through late next week and weekend with more rain. Soggy soils and flooding are not favorable for crop development in some areas, but others have plenty of soil moisture for early growth.

HOT IN THE DELTA

It would have been excessively hot in the Delta this week, but moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico has brought some showers and cloud cover to reduce the heat's impact. Much of that has been pushed westward and temperatures will be on the increase going into the weekend. A front moves into the region early next week but does not contain a reduction in temperatures or much in the way of precipitation. But another Wednesday and Thursday probably will. Any brief break in the heat will be short-lived with heat going into July.

MILD AND SHOWERY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An active pattern has brought showers through the Canadian Prairies this week, being heavier in the south and east. Farther west and north, temperatures have been cold enough in the mornings to produce some limited frosts. The region continues to be active with a system moving through Friday and Saturday, another early next week, and yet another late next week. Though showers are scattered and some areas are missed, soil moisture continues to be very favorable in most areas. Manitoba continues to be a little too wet.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front has stalled and been very active across the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil over the last week, redeveloping some floods after last month's historic flooding. The front gets pulled south this weekend, but then comes right back in and stalls again for next week, exacerbating the wet conditions there. Winter wheat planting continues to face challenges. Rain is forecast to largely stay south of the safrinha corn areas, allowing for harvest to continue progressing faster than normal.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

Isolated showers have moved through Argentina this week and more will move through over the next several days with another system. Dry conditions are still unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, though the region is getting some beneficial rain through Saturday. More showers may develop early and late next week and southern wheat areas are favored over the north. A burst of colder temperatures will move through this weekend into early next week, which may bring frosts to wheat.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

A system has produced more widespread showers across western and northern Europe this week, being unfavorably wet across France and Germany for both maturing winter wheat and developing corn. This system finally pushes eastward this weekend, with part of it drifting into the Mediterranean, which may provide some needed rainfall for southeastern areas that have been very hot this week. After a brief but needed break, showers may move back into northwestern Europe in the middle of next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A few showers will move through the Black Sea region Thursday and Friday with a front passing through, and another may do so early next week, but precipitation has been awfully spotty across much of the region, especially some of the higher wheat production areas in southwestern Russia. It is too late for wheat, but developing corn and sunflowers are now having issues as recent heat has been forcing crops to develop fast with poor soil moisture. Temperatures may be more moderate with the fronts moving through, but the lack of rainfall is concerning.

FAIR WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A front moving through this week has brought some limited showers through Australia and continues across the southeast for Thursday. A system may bring showers to western areas Friday but will sit across the south and not provide much to eastern areas this weekend or next week. Another system later next week shows more promise for widespread rain. Eastern areas, and especially Queensland, could use more rainfall for winter wheat and canola establishment, but most areas are in good shape for the moment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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