Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the northwestern Corn Belt and hot and largely dry conditions for the southern and eastern Corn Belt, wet weather in parts of Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST IS WET NORTHWEST, HOT AND LARGELY DRY SOUTH AND EAST

A system moved into the Midwest over the weekend and produced widespread showers and thunderstorms in the northwest. Spotty showers occurred in other areas, but most stayed dry while temperatures rapidly increased on Sunday. The system laid down a front across the northwest where daily showers and thunderstorms will occur all week long, bringing flooding rain. South of the front, temperatures will be excessive in some areas and humidity is very high, causing a rapid decrease in soil moisture and stress in areas that were not overly saturated. A general wet and cooler northwest and hotter and drier south and east will continue throughout the week with few exceptions, though models disagree on the potential for showers for the south and east, which may be slightly more widespread than the forecast. Crops would benefit from increased moisture and reduced heat if they indeed occur. The front will finally get pushed eastward over the weekend and another system moving through during the middle of next week will produce more widespread precipitation and milder temperatures as well.

HOT AND SHOWERY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moved into the Central Plains over the weekend and produced areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the north and west. The front will waffle around the northern portions of the region through Saturday before it finally moves east, continuing showers and thunderstorms and severe weather in the north and west for most of the week. South of the front, temperatures will continue to be quite warm to hot for mid-June, causing stress and quick reduction in soil moisture where showers do not occur.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend as a system pushed a front into the region. The front will continue to waffle around the region and areas to the south throughout the week, producing daily occurrences of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Some areas of flooding, breezy winds, and severe weather are forecast for the region. Temperatures will be cooler through midweek as well.

HOT WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Hot and largely drier weather occurred in the Delta over the weekend, reducing soil moisture in the region, but causing limited stress as soil moisture was largely beneficial ahead of time. Hot temperatures will be in place all week long, but moisture coming north from the Gulf of Mexico may produce some showers at times and reduce the impact of the heat. A front moves through early next week with some showers and another moves through a day or two later with some more potential beneficial showers.

COOL AND SHOWERY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend with rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. The system also brought in cooler temperatures that will stick around through midweek before starting to rise. If skies can clear and winds calm down, there may be some patchy frost in the southwest. But those chances are low. Periods of showers will continue to move across the region all this week and into next week as well, keeping soil moisture high, though too high in some areas, especially in the east.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil this weekend with heavy rain, which may have resulted in additional flooding in areas that are still trying to recover from last month's historic floods. The front will remain stalled in the south all week long with more periods of rain and potential flooding. Winter wheat planting continues to face challenges from wet soils as well. Rain is forecast to largely stay south of the safrinha corn areas, while temperatures remain high, forcing corn into maturity quicker. Poor weather conditions over the last two months have meant limited or no rainfall for corn, and cuts to the safrinha crop are more likely as harvest continues to increase.

LIMITED SHOWERS ACROSS ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina late last week and settled just north of the country. Paraguay and southern Brazil will continue to see showers, but heavy rain is not forecast for Argentina. Instead, occasional showers will move through. Winter wheat planting and establishment could use some more widespread and heavier rainfall after the last couple of months of drier conditions. Only limited areas of the country will see some higher amounts this week. Cooler temperatures are likely to push through the country over the weekend into early next week, which may result in some frosts, especially for the south.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

An upper-level low-pressure center brought unfavorable rainfall to northwestern Europe over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to those same areas most of this week as well. France and Germany will be especially wet, unfavorable for maturing wheat and developing corn, where flooding and saturated soils are very common. Adjacent areas across the west and north will welcome the rainfall. Southeastern areas will be unfavorable dry with increasing heat yet again, which should cause stress for developing summer crops.

HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A system brought showers into eastern Ukraine over the weekend, but very limited showers for southwestern Russia, unfavorable for immature wheat that has been dealing with heat and dryness during the critical stages over the last couple of weeks. A few showers early this week and a few more mid-late week with another front will not bring much precipitation to very dry areas in the region. Instead, the lack of rain will increase temperatures most of this week, causing further stress to developing corn and sunflowers in areas of drought.

FAIR WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers fell over Australia this weekend, but many areas remained dry. A couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend with chances for scattered showers, though some areas will get missed. Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the country, though eastern areas couple use some more rain. The change to La Nina, though slower than expected, should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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