DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Plains with troughs in the North Pacific and eastern Canada. The ridge is shifting to the East over the next day or two, while the Pacific trough moves into the West, continuing through most of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will start to flatten out at the end of next week with a trough moving through the country into the following week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS has much more precipitation forecast than the European, especially coming from the Gulf of Mexico. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A stalled front from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will stay active throughout next week. The south will be drier, but we could see some precipitation coming up from the Gulf of Mexico which is not expected to be tropical for the U.S. Temperatures will be above normal in the South and East but below normal in the Northwest. The cooler air is forecast to run out in the middle of next week, with a lot of warmth left over or building back in as the ridge flattens out.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...113 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...23 AT BYNAM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...KEY WEST, FL 1.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the Plains with troughs in the North Pacific and eastern Canada. The ridge is shifting to the East over the next day or two, while the Pacific trough moves into the West, continuing through most of next week. The ridge will start to flatten out at the end of next week with a trough moving through the country into the following week. This is generally a very active pattern for the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS has much more precipitation forecast than the European, especially coming from the Gulf of Mexico. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A stalled front from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest will stay active throughout next week. The south will be drier, but we could see some precipitation coming up from the Gulf of Mexico which is not expected to be tropical for the U.S. Temperatures will be above normal in the South and East but below normal in the Northwest. The cooler air is forecast to run out in the middle of next week, with a lot of warmth left over or building back in as the ridge flattens out.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move into the region on Friday night and its front will stall out in or near the region, waffling around all of next week. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in some parts of the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will stay active across the north for Friday, but a much larger system will push a front into the region over the weekend and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans, but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat at times. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures in the area, which will be very hot when showers and clouds are not occurring.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moving into and stalling in the northwest this weekend will remain active through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall but could see some as models disagree on where precipitation occurs. Temperatures will be much more consistently hot starting Sunday, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drier weather is likely through Saturday, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region starting Sunday. Any rainfall right now looks to be light and spotty. Temperatures will start to rise, likely being hot and stressful, especially if showers do not develop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend.

The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through, resulting in some areas of moderate to heavy rain. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions with warm temperatures in most areas are helping safrinha corn to mature, but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. A front moving into the south this weekend will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move through the country on Friday with limited rainfall, but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. That would be more helpful for winter wheat planting and establishment. Colder air will become a possibility by late next week, being unfavorable, though models are not consistent with colder air.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Eastern areas are seeing brief relief from hot temperatures, but will find additional warmth returning over the weekend and continuing through next week. An upper-level low-pressure center will continue to bring more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months.

Another extension of this low-pressure center moves through early next week with more showers there as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front and a system will move through over the weekend into early next week. Meaningful rainfall is forecast for parts of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for immature wheat and developing corn and sunflowers, though wheat is largely out of time to benefit in most areas. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase next week while it dries out again, a poor prospect for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is bringing limited showers through eastern areas Friday. Though it has not been especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week and overall conditions for winter wheat and canola are favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Dry Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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