DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with troughs in the North Pacific, the Canadian Prairies, and the East. The Prairies trough and another from the Pacific trough will move eastward through Canada through the weekend. By the end of the week, the ridge will shift to the East, while the Pacific trough moves into the Northwest, continuing through most of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough and eastern ridge pattern is favored through most of next week, generally a very active pattern for the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS has much more precipitation forecast than the European. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, dragging a front into the middle of the U.S. that should stall. Disturbances riding along the front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the country, probably through next week. The south will be drier, but we could see some precipitation coming up from the Gulf of Mexico which may or may not be tropical. Temperatures will be above normal in the South and East but below normal in the Northwest. The cooler air is forecast to run out by the middle of next week, with a lot of warmth left over or building back in.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...112 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...26 AT COVINGTON, MI AND ISABELLA, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 2.05 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the West with troughs in the North Pacific, the Canadian Prairies, and the East. The Prairies trough and another from the Pacific trough will move eastward through Canada through the weekend. By the end of the week, the ridge will shift to the East, while the Pacific trough moves into the Northwest, continuing through most of next week. This is generally a very active pattern for the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS has much more precipitation forecast than the European. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, dragging a front into the middle of the U.S. that should stall. Disturbances riding along the front will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the country, probably through next week. The south will be drier, but we could see some precipitation coming up from the Gulf of Mexico which may or may not be tropical. Temperatures will be above normal in the South and East but below normal in the Northwest. The cooler air is forecast to run out by the middle of next week, with a lot of warmth left over or building back in.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system that moved through Monday brought scattered showers and some severe weather. Another will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with isolated showers. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and drop its front into and near the region that will stall out. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Two systems will move well off to the north of the region over the next few days, but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans, but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area this week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Two systems will move through the region this week. And while they will not be very strong, they will bring some rainfall and potential severe weather through the region. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall.

Temperatures will waffle with the systems moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drier weather is likely for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being quite warm and stressful if showers do not develop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures will be much more seasonable this week, but a couple of systems rolling through will bring scattered showers. A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature, but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue for the next few days, with a front moving into the south this weekend that will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved over southern areas over the weekend with limited rainfall, but most areas stayed dry, which is helpful for the remaining corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in the country to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country on Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. Colder air will become a possibility as well, being unfavorable for wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front stays active with showers across the south and east through Wednesday before a system moves the front south into the Mediterranean and brings showers to needed areas in the southeast for the end of the week. South of this front, it has been very warm and eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. That comes with another upper-level low-pressure center moving into northwestern Europe and bringing more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A front over western Ukraine will be pushed eastward by a system for late week and weekend. That system is forecast to bring meaningful rainfall to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase again next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front scrapes through southeastern areas with some favorable showers Tuesday. Another system over western areas Tuesday will fizzle it out as it gets into eastern areas. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Dry through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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