Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A change in the pattern toward hot and active this weekend, wet weather in parts of Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR MIDWEST

Two systems will move through the Midwest this week. And while they will not be very strong, they will bring some rainfall and potential severe weather through the region. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall. Temperatures will waffle with the systems moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Two systems will move well off to the north of the Central and Southern Plains over the next few days but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area this week.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system that moved through the Northern Plains on Monday brought scattered showers and some severe weather. Another will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with isolated showers. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and drop its front into the region that will stall out. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in the region.

QUIETER AND MILD IN THE DELTA

Drier weather is likely in the Delta for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being quite warm and stressful if showers do not develop.

STORM TRACK RUNNING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Temperatures will be much more seasonable in the Canadian Prairies this week, but a couple of systems rolling through will bring scattered showers. A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete, and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

RAIN COMING BACK TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature in Brazil but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures continue for the next few days, with a front moving into the south this weekend that will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

A front moved over southern Argentina over the weekend with limited rainfall, but most areas stayed dry, which is helpful for the remaining corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in the country to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country on Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. Colder air will become a possibility as well, being unfavorable for wheat establishment.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

A front stays active with showers across southern and eastern Europe through Wednesday before a system moves the front south into the Mediterranean and brings showers to needed areas in the southeast for the end of the week. South of this front, it has been very warm and eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. That comes with another upper-level low-pressure center moving into northwestern Europe and bringing more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months.

LIMITED RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

A front over western Ukraine will be pushed eastward by a system for late week and weekend. That system is forecast to bring meaningful rainfall to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase again next week.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

A front scrapes through southeastern Australia with some favorable showers Tuesday. Another system over western areas Tuesday will fizzle it out as it gets into eastern areas. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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